FiveThirtyEight is moving Florida’s Senate race from “likely R” to “lean R,” Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver said Thursday.
Republican candidate Rick Scott, who is also the outgoing governor, declared victory Tuesday evening while incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson refused to concede.
In the past couple days, the race has gotten even tighter as some lingering votes are being counted. Steve Kornacki, the national political correspondent for NBC News and MSNBC, tweeted Thursday that that there are “several unresolved issues,” including one that “one involves the large drop-off” in more than 24,000 ballots in which people voted for a governor candidate but not a Senate candidate.
Silver responded, saying, “We are moving Florida from Likely R to Lean R. The vote count keeps tightening and there’s a big, weird issue regarding an undervote in Broward County.”
[Opinion: Recount madness returns to Florida, but Bill Nelson is unlikely to overtake Rick Scott]
We are moving Florida from Likely R to Lean R. The vote count keeps tightening and there’s a big, weird issue regarding an undervote in Broward County.https://t.co/IPFgyRNPwT
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 8, 2018
With 99 percent of precincts reporting Thursday morning, according to the New York Times, Scott leads incumbent Nelson by 0.2 points, or about 21,986 votes. Any result below half a percentage point triggers an automatic recount, per state law.
Marc Elias, a recount attorney hired by Nelson’s campaign, speculated that scanning equipment “may not have caught it,” adding, “[t]he intent is clear, but the machine couldn’t pick it up,” according to the Orlando Sentinel.
On Wednesday, Nelson said, “We are proceeding to a recount.”
Florida’s 67 counties must report unofficial results to the state by Saturday at noon.
Another race in Florida, the gubernatorial contest between Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Ron DeSantis, may also be heading for a recount.
