Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan raise odds of recession as Trump stands firm on tariffs

Published April 7, 2025 9:17am ET



Top investment banks have increased their predictions that the U.S. economy will face a recession following President Donald Trump‘s implementation of his “Liberation Day” tariffs.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 45%, up from 35% last week. In the span of a month, the investment bank went from a 20% chance of a recession to a nearly 50/50 chance. 

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