Throughout 2015 and 2016, Donald Trump never led Hillary Clinton in a single public poll of New Hampshire. Until Thursday. A WBUR/MassINC poll shows him up by one percentage point, the ARG poll (which has a poor reputation) shows Trump up by five points, and the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll shows Trump and Clinton tied.
New Hampshire could play a decisive role in the election. Based simply on current polling averages, this is Trump’s most likely path to victory:
Here are battleground states that would have to go for Trump in this scenario (with the Real Clear Politics polling average leader listed in parentheses):
Ohio (Trump + 3.3)
Nevada (Trump + 2.0)
Iowa (Trump + 1.4)
Florida (Trump + 0.3)
North Carolina (Tied)
Maine 2nd Congressional District (Clinton + 0.7)
New Hampshire (Clinton + 0.8)
Now, there’s plenty of reason to be skeptical that things will break Trump’s way in each of these states. Early vote returns are promising for Democrats in Nevada, North Carolina, and Florida. Nevada in particular has a history of Democratic candidates outperforming their poll numbers.
But contrary to what you might have heard, Trump can win without Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan (or Colorado or Virginia for that matter).
FiveThirtyEight.com now gives Trump a 1-in-3 chance of winning the election, while the New York Times Upshot forecast gives Trump just a 1-in-7 shot.
