Yesterday I joined several other bloggers in a conference call with Senator John Ensign, chair of the Senate Republican Campaign Committee. He walked us through the races to watch next year. It’s no secret that analysts are viewing 2008 as a very tough year for the GOP, and there’s even speculation about whether Democrats can gain the nine seats needed to achieve a filibuster-proof majority. It seems the one thing that Ensign clearly has going for him is low expectations. Ensign identified the four top incumbent targets for the Democrats: Oregon: Ensign was upbeat about Gordon Smith’s re-elections chances. He pointed out that Smith fits the state very well, is doing well in fundraising, and will only face the Democrats 3rd or 4th choice for the race. Minnesota: Democrats are extremely uneasy about both of their prospective candidates (Al Franken and Mike Ciresi), because of their high negatives. Coleman by contrast, has a strong re-elect number — given the current political climate. Maine: Despite millions spent by MoveOn to trash Senator Collins, her favorable rating is still around 70 percent. New Hampshire: This will be the toughest incumbent race; it will draw lots of national money. Ensign noted that Shaheen (Sununu’s likely opponent), pushed a big tax increase as governor, while failing to address the state’s school funding crisis. Other Races: Virginia: The hardest state to hold — an expensive one where Republicans need the best candidate. But will Virginia really elect two Democratic Senators? Ensign later commented during the Q and A that he did not know whether Davis and Gilmore will be the only two candidates, and that the party must wait to see who emerges as the strongest contender. Nebraska: Republicans will hold this seat, according to Ensign. They have two great candidates, and the entry of Mike Johanns into the race likely means that Bob Kerrey will stay out. Colorado: While Democrats are considering this race a win, they’re wrong. Bob Schaffer will retain the seat for the GOP, according to Ensign. He said that while Democrats have done well in the state, those were moderate Democrats — not a bold liberal like Udall. Schaffer is a reformer who stuck by his term limits pledge and who’s raising lots of money. Louisiana: Landrieu is very vulnerable. She’s never won by more than 40,000 votes, and the state lost more Democrats than that after Katrina. She is the number one target. South Dakota: Johnson’s recovery has been miraculous, but there are several strong GOP contenders emerging. Republicans will try to avoid a primary. New Jersey: A very winnable race. Lautenberg — who won his first race partly by criticizing his opponent for being too old to be effective — will be in his 90s. Ensign has met with Anne Estabrook, who he says can give Lautenberg a run for his money. When asked about the Democrats’ money advantage, Ensign said that he has cut costs at the committee, and that fundraising has gotten a lot better lately. He said that a few months ago some of his fundraising calls were challenging, but that now people are a lot more eager to contribute as they see the real Democratic agenda. He said that if the ‘current Democratic frontrunner’ is the nominee, fundraising will get even easier. Read also Captain’s Quarters, Right Wing News, Rob Bluey, Conservatives With Attitude, and David All Group.
