The anti-Trump Our Principles PAC argued that Trump’s path to the GOP nomination is now “nearly impossible” and said Trump’s claim that victory is at hand is “detached from reality,” in a memo detailing their strategy to derail him.
“Despite Trump’s victory in New York on Tuesday night, he still has a nearly impossible path to secure the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. As a consequence, we are confident that there will be an open convention — and that Trump will not be the Republican nominee,” the political action committee wrote in the memo titled “Delegate math update, New York reality check.”
The PAC predicted that Trump could win nearly all the bound delegates in the five April 26th contests without improving his chances much. Although the Trump campaign recently stated they believe they’ll get to 1,400 before the convention, the PAC points out that Trump would need to win 82 percent of the remaining delegates in order to do this, a highly unlikely outcome.
In order to win the nomination before Cleveland, Trump must win over 50 percent of delegates each election day going forward. But in the past, Trump has won approximately 47 percent of delegates in each vote. The PAC also pointed out that if Trump wins all committed delegates in Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey, the majority of delegates in Connecticut, Indiana and California, and a plurality of delegates in Maryland, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington state and New Mexico, he will still fall short of the 1,237 threshold.
At present, Trump leads the Republican party with 845 pledged delegates, followed by Ted Cruz with 559 and John Kasich with 148.
