As polls go, the one that found six-term Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley in a statistical tie with Democratic challenger Patty Judge earlier this month isn’t considered the most reliable.
But it has shaken up what political observers had predicted would be another easy win for Grassley, who has held his seat since 1981 and has maintained a healthy approval rating in the Hawkeye State.
The Loras College Poll found 46 percent of likely voters preferred Grassley, a mere 1 point lead over Judge, the former lieutenant governor and former state agriculture secretary. Nine percent of voters said they were undecided.
The survey followed one by Public Policy Polling that showed a 7-point lead for Grassley and gave him an average polling advantage of just 4 percentage points over Judge.
Some now believe the two polls suggest Grassley could be facing the most difficult race in years and perhaps his entire political career.
“I think this will be closest race Grassley has seen in over a decade,” Dave Peterson, a political science professor at Iowa State University, told the Washington Examiner.
But Grassley has enjoyed positive approval ratings and a reputation as a hard worker. He never misses Senate votes and visits all 99 Iowa counties each year.
The Cook Political Report, one of the most widely respected, nonpartisan race analysts, has left Grassley’s seat in the “likely” Republican column and is dismissive of the Loras poll, which has been wrong in the past.
The race, Cook Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy told the Examiner, “is not that close.”
The Grassley campaign team rejects the Loras Poll as well as the numbers produced by Public Policy Polling, which is Democratic-leaning.
“We understand people are desperately trying to make this a race, but using phony, cooked-up numbers hasn’t worked before, and it isn’t working now,” campaign manager Bob Haus told the Examiner. “Chuck Grassley is in one of the strongest positions for re-election as he’s ever been.”
But Peterson and other Iowa political experts believe Grassley has become more politically vulnerable since joining the Senate GOP in opposing consideration of President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland. Polls show Iowans support a hearing and even a vote on Garland’s nomination.
Grassley has led the charge against taking up Garland in his role as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the panel that vets and votes first on nominations to the high court.
His approval rating has dropped in recent months to below 50 percent, which Judge supporters say indicates a clear opening for a Democratic challenger.
“Blocking the Garland nomination is not helping him,” Peterson said. “Grassley has always been a guy who works hard and looks out for Iowa. Even if you don’t agree with him on issues, it is difficult to paint him as a bad senator. Being the public face of Republican obstruction, however, runs counter to that image.”
Grassley could also be hurt by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president. Trump atop the ticket, some believe, will become a drag on other GOP races down the ballot.
But Grassley’s biggest problem may be Judge, who some believe is the most formidable opponent he has faced in years.
Unlike some past Democratic challengers, Judge’s name is widely recognized throughout the state thanks to her tenure as both lieutenant governor and agriculture secretary. But she’ll have to compete against Grassley’s formidable war chest of campaign cash totaling nearly $5.3 million.
“She obviously won’t be able to out-raise a six-term incumbent,” Jeff Link, a Democratic strategist based in Des Moines, who is working as a consultant for the Judge campaign, told the Examiner. “But she’ll be ready to take him on in the general election.”
