HOBOKEN, N.J. — New Jersey politicos believe the public is paying less attention to the state’s gubernatorial contest partly because of a lingering hangover from the tumultuous 2016 presidential campaign.
The race between Democratic nominee and former ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy and Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno is set for Nov. 7 but has consistently been upstaged by events in Washington and the end of outgoing Gov. Chris Christie’s time in office.
“Maybe they’re tired,” Guadagno conceded in an interview. “We had a governor who ran for president. We’ve had a very contested and interesting presidential race last year. One hundred twenty [state] offices are up this year, so each assembly person and senator is also up, so that might be taking some of the oxygen out of the race, but I think they’re beginning to pay a lot of attention.”
Although Virginia is the only other governorship in play this year, New Jersey is expected to have a low-turnout election. In the June primary contests, only 13 percent of the state’s 5.8 million registered voters turned out. In Christie’s two victories in 2009 and 2013, turnout reached 47 percent and 38 percent, respectively. Guadagno predicted about 37 percent of registered voters to go to the polls.
A low-turnout contest has some Democrats worried despite a healthy lead for Murphy, whose campaign’s latest internal polls show him leading by about 15 points, according to a senior adviser for the campaign. According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Murphy leads by 15.2 points over the incumbent lieutenant governor.
“It always concerns me,” said Newark Mayor Ras Baraka of a potential low-turnout election. “I think it’s the climate of the way things are. A lot of people are discouraged, a lot of feelings of hopelessness around the country.”
“We have to inspire people,” Baraka said. “The national Democratic party has to inspire people. Working people, progressives have to inspire folks to get involved to let them see that we may have lost, but we’re not defeated.” Democrats have tried to energize the base during the homestretch . Former President Barack Obama stumped for Murphy in Newark on Thursday only days after former Vice President Joe Biden made a stop in the Garden State. Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, is also the headliner for a fundraiser for Murphy on Sunday evening.
As for Guadagno, her campaign is centered around a plan to lower property taxes and Murphy’s calls to make New Jersey a sanctuary state and raise taxes. She even admitted at a Morris County fundraiser Friday night that they “wouldn’t have had a race” if it weren’t for Murphy’s plan to raise taxes by over $1 billion.
In recent weeks, Guadagno has hit her opponent with a “sanctuary state ad saying that Murphy would have the backs of “deranged murderers.”
The ad was instantly decried by Democrats, including Biden, who called it an example of “gutter politics.”
