A research team at Imperial College London said data shows that deaths related to COVID-19 could double in the United States if lockdowns are ended.
That would put the number of coronavirus-related deaths around 200,000 by summertime.
The report was released Thursday and concluded that two dozen states in the country have a “reproduction number” that is above the critical threshold of one, which means that in those states, the average number of people that a sick person will infect is more than just one person.
“We predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant,” a summary of the report reads. “We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged.”
The authors said that the models used to come up with the conclusions are not predictions and that other factors, including testing and contact tracing, will influence increases or decreases in the death toll. The researchers also said that the data shows no state is close to reaching “herd immunity.”
“Current estimates from our model of the U.S. suggest that the epidemic is unfortunately not yet under control in many states,” researcher Juliette Unwin, one of the authors, said in a statement to the Washington Post. “This suggests that other interventions are necessary if mobility begins to increase in these states as stay-at-home orders are eased.”
The research follows another study released this week that projects that coronavirus deaths in the U.S. could triple by the end of the year. That study found the U.S. may face between 350,000 and 1.2 million deaths.
The U.S. has had almost 94,000 deaths since the pandemic began and has seen more than 1.5 million reported infections.
