With just weeks to go before the midterm elections, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell‘s (R-KY) detractors are criticizing his leadership as shifting forecasts suggest the party will have a more difficult time winning a majority in the upper chamber than previously expected.
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Republicans nationally are campaigning on inflation, gas prices, and other “kitchen table” issues that the GOP expected to buoy them to power on a red wave in November. But following the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization and the FBI’s seizure of apparently classified documents at the Mar-a-Lago estate of former President Donald Trump, Republicans are navigating a political climate in which abortion and the ex-president are factoring into elections in ways larger than previously anticipated.
Combined with a spate of recent legislative wins for Democrats and concerns over the strength of GOP candidates in key Senate races, election analysts give Democrats better than even odds of keeping their Senate majority in November.
The Senate Leadership Fund, a McConnell-aligned super PAC, has committed tens of millions of dollars to boost the party’s Senate nominees in the midterm homestretch, and McConnell himself has held fundraisers for Dr. Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, and other GOP Senate candidates competing in tight races.
But the minority leader’s decision not to release a governing agenda should Republicans win back the majority in November, as well as comments he made last month about GOP “candidate quality” that some conservatives viewed as disparaging, have critics warning that McConnell’s actions are undermining the Republican Party’s midterm election chances.
The public face of this criticism has been Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), the head of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm. Although he hasn’t mentioned McConnell by name, Scott has publicly, and repeatedly, railed against those “trash-talking our Republican candidates.” The reference, published in a Washington Examiner op-ed earlier this month, was widely interpreted as a knock on McConnell, who has downplayed the prospect of a Republican Senate majority.
One conservative strategist and former Senate aide told the Washington Examiner that in setting expectations low and criticizing candidates, McConnell sent a message that “these candidates aren’t worth fighting for.”
“For someone who’s considered a political genius, somehow, McConnell has painted himself into a corner where he only looks smart if Republicans lose. He has basically staked out a position that we have bad candidates, we’re not following the right strategy, and I don’t expect to retake the Senate,” the strategist said.
Scott’s feud with McConnell has to do with campaign messaging more broadly and extends back to February, when Scott released an 11-point blueprint laying out a governing agenda should Republicans take back the Senate. McConnell, who declined to release an agenda ahead of the midterm elections, publicly rebuked Scott for the plan, which garnered controversy for proposing that half of the country pay more in income taxes.
The approach by McConnell contrasts with that of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who plans to unveil his “Commitment to America” in a speech next week in Pennsylvania that will lay out the priorities of a potential GOP House in 2023.
Reminiscent of the party’s 1994 “Contract with America,” House leadership lists the economy and public safety among its focuses and promises to be a check on the Biden administration next year.
GOP leaders hope this will be enough to blunt Democratic messaging as the party campaigns on a series of wins in Congress, chief among them a reconciliation bill that included drug pricing reforms and major clean energy spending.
Although the Republican Party will have a challenging time winning back the Senate, it is still expected to reclaim a House majority in the fall.
Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist who has been an adviser to McConnell, disputed the criticisms of the minority leader, telling the Washington Examiner that while he sees the House as “a mortal lock” for Republicans, “clear-eyed strategists” expected a more difficult Senate map in competitive purple states all along.
“The Senate map is what we thought it would be,” Jennings said. “It’s a bunch of close races.”
Asked about Democrats’ recent legislative victories, Jennings argued Democrats are “mistaking motion for progress,” pointing to divisions within the party on some measures, including Biden’s student loan forgiveness.
Jennings said inflation remains a top-of-mind issue for voters and there is “no ambiguity” about the work McConnell has done to boost Republican Senate candidates in messaging and fundraising.
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“He frequently makes some of the best arguments against the Democrat platform in his Senate speeches,” Jennings added.
