The likelihood of people going out and spending at establishments is closely tied to how well the virus is contained, economists say, meaning that simply easing pandemic restrictions may not be enough to revive commerce.

Consumer confidence is starting to rise from low levels, according to the latest data from Gallup, and people are starting to go out to establishments in small numbers. If, however, infection rates from the virus go up, “people will be more hesitant to go out and spend,” said Marta Lachowska, a labor economist at the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research who specializes in research on employment and expenditure.