With over four months until the November election, handicapping 435 House races is a daunting task. But Jim Ellis, a seasoned political operative and electoral analyst who runs the PRIsm Information Network, puts the November landscape into clearer focus. According to Ellis, 228 House seats fall into the “safe,” “likely,” or “lean” Democratic categories. Similarly, 189 Republican seats are considered safe, likely, or lean for the GOP. That leaves 18 seats as pure toss-ups–the ones that will shape the balance of power in the new House in January 2009. Assuming each party holds all the seats in the three categories that tilt its way, the new Democratic majority in the House could range from 246 D to 189 R (assuming Democrats win all the toss-ups) to 228 D to 207 R (assuming Republicans win all the toss-ups). Since it’s highly unlikely either party will run the table and prevail in all close races, the new House ratio likely will settle somewhere between Ellis’s two estimates. Keep in mind that the current House ratio is 236 D to 199 R. Based on Ellis’ numbers, ending up anywhere north of 200 would represent a huge victory for House Republicans (that would take holding all of the safe, likely, and lean GOP districts and winning over half of the toss-ups). A better guess would probably put the new House closer to the 245 to 190 or 250 to 185 range, about where it was nearly 30 years ago right after Ronald Reagan was elected in November 1980 (the House included 244 Democrats and 191 Republicans in January 1981). Republicans dipped below 190 votes in the House after 1982 and hovered between the mid-160s and low-180s for the next 15 years. The House was at a 258 D to 176 R ratio in 1994, immediately prior to the Republicans winning the majority for the first time in 40 years.
