Elizabeth Warren polls in fourth place nationally in the 2020 Democratic field, but in debates she has declined to attack the rival she most needs to weaken, front-runner Bernie Sanders.
It’s a curious strategy for a candidate who prides herself on “having a plan” for social problems ranging from college debt, healthcare, to helping minorities start their own marijuana growing business.
The Massachusetts senator appears unequipped or unwilling to land any effective blows against Sanders, the Vermont senator and Democratic front-runner after getting the most votes in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
Warren was widely considered the winner of the recent Nevada debate before Democrats in the state voted in Saturday’s caucuses. But Sanders then was not among Warren’s rhetorical targets, trained instead on the likes of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden.
On the Tuesday night debate stage in South Carolina, Warren’s attacks on Sanders remained tepid. Rather than speak about his electability as a self-proclaimed socialist or any ideological differences, Warren criticized him over his healthcare plan.
“Bernie and I both want to see universal healthcare, but Bernie’s plan doesn’t explain how to get there, doesn’t show how we’re going to get enough allies into it, and doesn’t show enough how we’re going to pay for it,” said Warren, 70.
That was essentially the extent of her fire on Sanders, 78. Instead, Warren spent most of the night targeting Michael Bloomberg over his past statements on women and massive wealth earned in the private sector.
Although that scored her applause from a number of liberals on Twitter, Warren and the former New York City mayor share few voters in common. Knocking Bloomberg down a few pegs in the polls would likely only benefit a moderately center-left candidate such as Biden or former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
“I think people who stay in races despite not having a clear path often do for many reasons — sometimes they want to be in an admin, or VP, or they need to raise money to pay debts, or their consultants have convinced them there’s a path when there isn’t,” Sanders supporter and liberal activist Nomiki Konst told the Washington Examiner, who later said Warren has “no path forward to winning.”
Individuals close to the Sanders campaign who have spoken with the Washington Examiner over the course of the primary say Warren is not on the shortlist for vice president, despite the public musings of some Democrats. Her seemingly noncommitment to “Medicare for all” and leak of a story accusing Sanders of saying a woman could never be president quickly made her an enemy of many high-ranking officials in his campaign.
“I must admit that her unwillingness to attack Sen. Sanders is a bit bizarre and a strategic mistake, but I can’t imagine any scenario where she runs as his vice president,” said Democratic strategist Jim Manley. “Like everyone else in the race, she is waiting for Sanders to buckle under pressure and steal the liberal lane from him.”
Many candidates stay in a presidential race far longer than they’re electorally viable, but Warren’s lingering may have some logic to it ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Wisconsin from July.
“She figures that if there is a ‘stop Bernie’ movement in Milwaukee, she could be the beneficiary. If there is a successful coup at the convention to stop Bernie, there will be a revolt by Sanders supporters who would not vote or vote for a third-party candidate in November,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “The only stop to reduce a progressive revolt would be to nominate a less threatening progressive candidate like Warren as an alternative to Bernie.”
A contested convention in July appears more likely than ever in recent political history. FiveThirtyEight, a data-focused politics site, has the odds of no candidate winning a majority of pledged delegates by July at roughly 2-5 odds — the same as Sanders winning the primary outright.
Warren’s repeated use of the phrase “unity” could be a glimpse of what her team will be saying behind the scenes in Milwaukee if no candidate earns a majority of delegates.
“The fight between factions in our party has taken a sharp turn in recent weeks with ads mocking other candidates and with supporters of some candidates shouting curses at other Democratic candidates,” she said following the results of the New Hampshire primary, where she placed fourth with just over 9% of the vote. “These harsh tactics might work if you are willing to burn down the rest of the party in order to be the last man standing.”
In January, Warren’s campaign released a road map for how it will stay viable through Super Tuesday.
Outside of her home state of Massachusetts, Warren’s campaign didn’t identify any other contests where it expects to win. Under the proportional delegate system, she won’t necessarily need to in order to have a seat at the table at the convention.
Should she continue to fundraise millions of dollars after strong debate performances, Warren’s dream of being the nominee without winning a single contest could stay alive.
