ONE OF THE MOST DISAPPOINTING TRENDS for Republicans in the 2006 campaign is their failure to compete effectively against incumbent Democrats. In fact, no Republican challenger has led a House Democrat in a single public poll. And while Republican Tom Kean Jr. ran ahead of Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez in New Jersey in several polls, he has now fallen back and is expected to lose. In several House races, however, Republicans now appear to have a chance of knocking off an incumbent Democrat.
The best prospects are in Georgia, where Republicans undid the congressional district lines enacted by Democrats and created new ones aimed, in part, at defeating Democratic Representatives John Barrow and Jim Marshall. Barrow lost Athens, the liberal college town, and now is rated no better than even against the Republican House member he ousted in 2004, Max Burns.
The district is more than 40 percent black, yet Barrow, who is a white Harvard Law graduate, has not developed a strong relationship with black voters. This has prompted Rahm Emanuel, the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, to pressure Barrow to woo these voters. But Barrow is said to have balked. He defeated Burns 52 percent to 48 percent two years ago.
The other vulnerable Democratic seat in Georgia is held by Representative Jim Marshall. It is regarded as even more favorable to Republican candidates than the Barrow seat. But former Republican Congressman Mac Collins hasn’t been able to make as much headway as Burns. Collins quit the House to run for the Republican nomination for the Senate in 2004. He lost in the primary. Marshall, a moderate, is a slight favorite to beat Collins. Marshall won handily in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote.
In Iowa, Democratic House member Leonard Boswell has been a target of Republicans the past three election cycles. And this year he is being challenged by one of the most impressive Republican candidates, Jeff Lamberti. His problem, according to a Democratic candidate, is that “he’s a great Republican candidate in a bad Republican year.” Boswell won by 55 percent to 45 percent in 2004. If the seat were open, Lamberti would surely win. With Boswell seeking reelection, Lamberti is an underdog. The district includes Des Moines.
At one point, Republicans thought they had a solid chance to win the lone Vermont House seat, which is being vacated by socialist Bernie Sanders (who’s running for the Senate). The Republican candidate, Martha Rainville, is the former head of the state National Guard. The latest poll in Vermont, a state that trended Democratic in recent years, found her 10 percentage points behind Democrat Peter Welch. That is probably too big a lead to overcome with so few days left in the campaign.
One of the strongest Republican challengers is David McSweeney who, in the suburbs Chicago, is running against one-term Democratic Representative Melissa Bean. She has the rare distinction for a Democrat of being supported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, whose endorsement was based on her vote for the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). That vote angered organized labor. The Chamber has run TV ads defending her vote. In 2004, she upset long-time Republican House member Phil Crane.
McSweeney, a Reaganite conservative, is a successful businessman who has partially self-financed his campaign. He and another Republican House candidate in Illinois, Peter Roskom, were strongly endorsed by President Bush when the president appeared at a Republican rally in Chicago in mid-October. McSweeney is not the favorite, but he has stayed on Bean’s heels. Like the other challengers, his prospects may depend on a late Republican rally across the country.
It would be highly unusual for Republicans not to capture a single seat from a Democrat. Kean and Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele still have a remote chance of winning a Democratic Senate seat. But House challengers have better prospects. If control of the House is close–Democrats need 15 seats–a victory or two by Republican challengers could save the House for Republicans. That isn’t likely, but it’s still possible.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
