A leading coronavirus forecast model predicted the U.S. coronavirus death toll will more than double in the next four months.
The model by Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was released on Thursday and divined that the daily U.S. death toll could increase to about 3,000 per day in December. The researchers attribute the projected increase to “seasonality and declining vigilance of the public.” In total, deaths are expected to increase by 225,000 by the end of the year.
The research also warned about a strategy of building toward herd immunity, in which a certain majority share of the population contracts COVID-19 and builds immunity against it. The IHME summary said if there is no more government action to stem the spread of the coronavirus, there could be devastating results.
“If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, namely no further government intervention is taken from now to January 1, then the death toll could increase to 620,000 by January 1. Compared to the reference scenario, this would be 210,000 more deaths from now to the end of the year,” researchers said.
By contrast, if an increased number of people were to wear masks, the model predicts the expected death toll could be significantly reduced.
“Increasing mask use remains an extraordinary opportunity for the US. Increasing mask use to the levels seen in Singapore would decrease the cumulative death toll to 288,000, or 122,000 lives saved compared to the reference scenario. This would be a 30% reduction in the deaths expected from now until the end of the year,” the IHME forecast summary said.
The United States has had more than 6.1 million reported COVID-19 cases and at least 186,718 related deaths since the pandemic first began.
