As Donald Trump is once again competitive with Hillary Clinton, Republicans are increasingly optimistic that they will retain their Senate majority and fend off challenges against their incumbent.
Republicans began to panic as Trump slid in the polls after the Democratic convention and many GOP incumbents went in the hole with him. But the more recent numbers have been encouraging for Republicans.
“I think Republicans have a very good chance at keeping the Senate. If you asked me that a month ago, I would have said the Democrats have a significant lead and edge on retaking it, but things are tightening,” said Ron Bonjean, a GOP consultant. “The races are tighter in the battleground states.”
In the past month, GOP Senate incumbents, in most instances, have either extended their leads or cut into deficits to put them within striking distance. For example, Ohio’s Rob Portman has turned a nearly 6-point lead over former Gov. Ted Strickland into a double-digit margin. After announcing in late June his intent to run for reelection Florida’s Marco Rubio has taken a lead over Rep. Patrick Murphy, who was one of the Democrats most prized recruits. Rubio leads Murphy by 4.5 points, according to an average of state polls.
The race for the Senate now comes down to four races: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Nevada. The last of these is the Republicans’ only real chance to flip a Democratic seat.
At the moment, Sen. Kelly Ayotte holds a nearly 2-point lead over Gov. Maggie Hassan. Only three weeks ago, Ayotte was down by 4.7 points to the sitting governor, but has clawed her way back as Trump nearly has halved Clinton’s lead in the state. Meanwhile, Sen. Pat Toomey is neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger Katie McGinty after trailing by nearly 3 points a month ago.
Meanwhile, Rep. Todd Young is fighting back against former Sen. Evan Bayh in Indiana after Bayh announced his entrance in the race before the clock struck midnight, while Rep. Joe Heck holds a slight lead in Nevada over Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto as Republicans look to flip Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid’s seat.
But for many Republicans, it all comes down to Trump and how he fares in various states, noting that he doesn’t even have to win them for the GOP to be successful at the senatorial level.
“It’s 50/50 — much more likely than it was a month ago,” a Republican consultant said about the GOP’s chances. “The Democrats entire strategy was to tie Republicans to Trump … our guys running really good races.”
“They don’t need Trump to win,” the consultant added. “They need him to be close.”
Some of this, Republicans argue, is due to a weak recruiting job by Democrats this cycle. Once thought to be top-notch recruits, Strickland and Murphy have turned out to be deeply flawed candidates. While the former Ohio governor has made multiple gaffes and seen his favorability ratings fall, Murphy has been roundly hit from Republicans for lying about his resume.
Even Bayh, who was a late entrant into the Indiana contest and a top Democratic recruit, has been dogged by questions about his residency, leading to sagging poll numbers over the past week and renewed questions about his chances of making it back to the Senate in January.
In the past week, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has pulled ads from both Ohio and Florida as the race takes shape with two months to go. The Senate Majority PAC, which is run by allies of Reid, has also pulled ads for Strickland out of Ohio, signaling a shift in strategy.
“If you look at their candidates, their candidates are not fantastic,” Bonjean said. “The candidates they’ve recruited are not top-tier. Some of these states are going to be decided by the candidates themselves. Some are going to be decided by a down-ballot effect and combinations of both.”
However, Trump still remains as the main driving force of the race, which makes Republicans uneasy.
“Donald Trump just staying more on message and not stepping in it is extremely helpful for Senate Republicans,” Bonjean said.
How long can that last?
“We don’t know,” Bonjean concluded.
