Two incumbent Florida congressmen are neck and neck in the race for a Republican-leaning Panhandle district, according to a recent poll.
GOP Rep. Neal Dunn holds a 3-point lead over Democratic Rep. Al Lawson in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a survey of 400 likely voters conducted between June 20 and June 23 by Sachs Media Group. Dunn’s narrow 43% to 40% edge over Lawson, with 17% of voters undecided, is well within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.
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Dunn’s statistically insignificant lead comes as a surprise given the newly redrawn 2nd District’s GOP bent and a national political environment that is expected to favor Republicans. The same poll found that President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is underwater by double digits in the district and that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) holds a commanding 53% to 41% edge over Democratic front-runner Rep. Charlie Crist among 2nd District voters in the governor’s race.
Lawson opted to challenge Dunn after his current seat, in the 5th District, was axed by DeSantis and the Republican-led state legislature during Florida’s redistricting process. The elimination of the 5th District, which has a black plurality, drew strong condemnation from Democrats and voting rights activists, who accused DeSantis of partisan gerrymandering and diluting the influence of black voters.
Dunn, who currently represents the 2nd District, saw that Republican strength in his seat significantly reduced during redistricting. While former President Donald Trump won the 2nd District under its current lines by a whopping 35 points, he carried the newly redrawn 2nd District by a smaller 55% to 44% margin.
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Still, in a midterm cycle in which Democrats are expected to face strong headwinds as they struggle to retain control of Congress, the exceedingly close nature of the race is jolting. Since Florida’s new congressional map was implemented, Dunn has been seen as the clear favorite by political observers. Election forecasters including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have the 2nd District rated as “Safe Republican,” meaning it has not been considered winnable for Lawson.
