The Fed official who correctly predicted inflation could fall without a recession

Published August 19, 2025 6:00am ET



Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller was one of the few top economists who correctly predicted that the central bank could drive down inflation without causing a spike in unemployment. He is now the most prominent Fed voice in favor of lowering interest rates.

Waller, first nominated to the post by President Donald Trump in 2019, has become one of the most closely watched Fed officials, in part because of his apparent prescience about the policy path to bringing down inflation without nuking the jobs market.

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