Before I begin, a word of caution: Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a Democratic firm that seems to have no problem using psephology stir up mischief among the political GOP.
However, PPP’s polls aren’t really unreliable either. And Wednesday’s poll is a doozy:
That sounds a bit like the standard New Hampshire assessment we’ve been hearing. But let’s drill down a bit more. Head to head, PPP shows Trump trailing Rubio 52 to 40 percent. (Head to head Trump also loses to Cruz 46 to 39.) But, as PPP notes, the “establishment split gives [Trump] 14 pt lead full field.”
Bush, Rubio, Kaisch, Christie combine for 47 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. Throw in Fiorina supporters and you’re at 51 percent. If their respective supporters could unite behind a single one of these more establishment candidates, that candidate would walk away with New Hampshire. Cruz is looking strong in Iowa, and if Trump didn’t manage to win New Hampshire, then it’s easy to see the wind going out of his sails.
But Christie and Bush are both feuding with Rubio. And despite not performing terribly in New Hampshire, Kasich’s more liberal views are a nonstarter with a lot of more conservative voters in other states making his entire campaign quixotic. It’s hard to imagine any of these candidates going away before New Hampshire.
As a result, Trump may win the crucial primary without demonstrating his views are all that representative of New Hampshire voters.
