Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce the accession of occupied Ukrainian territory to the Russian Federation during a speech to both houses of parliament later this week.
The U.K. Ministry of Defense described the scenario as “a realistic possibility” in its daily update on Tuesday, adding that “Russia’s leaders almost certainly hope that any accession announcement will be seen as a vindication of the ‘special military operation’ and will consolidate patriotic support for the conflict.”
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Russian-occupied territory in the Donbas and in the south are holding referendums on whether to join the Russian Federation, though the results are a foregone conclusion. The U.S. and Western leaders have condemned the proceedings and said they would not be recognized internationally.
White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters last Friday that the United States would “impose additional swift and severe economic costs on Russia along with our allies and partners in response to these actions if they move forward with annexation.”
The referendums coincide with Putin’s decision last week to call up roughly 300,000 reservists to join the war. “Many tens of thousands” of call-up papers have been issued to date, though many reservists have not had military experience in “some years” and will likely “deploy to the front line with minimal relevant preparation,” the agency said in its Monday update.
Flights to Istanbul, Turkey, and Yerevan, Armenia, were sold out quickly after the speech, while others attempted to cross Russia’s border by vehicle. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the government hadn’t made a decision on whether to close the border or impose martial law, according to TASS, a Russian state media outlet. Protests have broken out in various cities, while nearly 2,400 civilians have been arrested, according to OVD-Info, an independent watchdog that monitors police activity in Russia.
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The move to call up reserves had demonstrated his military’s significant manpower concerns.
“It’s definitely a sign [Putin is] struggling and we know that. He has suffered tens of thousands of casualties,” National Security Council coordinator John Kirby said last week. “He has terrible morale, unit cohesion on the battlefield, command and control has still not been solved. He’s got desertion problems, and he’s forcing the wounded back into the fight. So clearly, manpower is a problem for him.”
