The 9 biggest things to watch in Trump’s first State of the Union

Trump’s first State of the Union address could see the president offer a roadmap out of the negative coverage that has surrounded his administration for weeks following the publication of a salacious book about the White House and a string of developments in the special counsel’s Russia investigation. The high-stakes speech will also carry risks, as a miscalculation from Trump could touch off days of vicious headlines and sap his remaining goodwill on Capitol Hill.

Here are nine things to watch in Trump’s State of the Union address.

1. How will he highlight his guests?

One of the most memorable moments from Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress last year came when the president turned his attention the widow of a U.S. Navy special operator who died during a failed raid in Yemen. When Trump spoke about Carryn Owens, who had lost her husband Senior Chief William “Ryan” Owens just weeks earlier, the crowd erupted in a standing ovation that brought both Republicans and Democrats to their feet.

Presidents traditionally invite guests who amplify specific themes within their State of the Union addresses to sit in the first lady’s box. And presidents can create emotional moments in otherwise policy-heavy speeches by highlighting the people who embody their priorities.

Former President Ronald Reagan popularized the practice in 1982 when he gave a shout-out during his State of the Union address to Lenny Skutnik, a government employee who had dove into the freezing Potomac River to rescue a woman after an airplane crashed into the water. Some political insiders still refer to presidential guests at the annual speech as “Skutniks,” an homage to the first everyday American who briefly received the spotlight during a State of the Union.

Trump’s guests on Tuesday will include a wounded veteran, business owners who raised wages due to the Republican tax cuts, a border security agent, and even a police officer who adopted a baby after the child’s parents died of opioid addiction, the White House announced on Monday.

The guests who will sit with his family on Tuesday could help Trump give his words about immigration reform, national security and economic growth the depth needed to make those issues resonate further.

2. Will he stick to the script?

Trump’s characteristically off-the-cuff speeches may help him dominate headlines and blot out negative coverage in other formats, but ad-libbing during the State of Union address could risk overshadowing the meat of his speech.

In the past, Trump’s tangents have eclipsed the actual content of his speeches in which they occurred. For example, during a campaign event for then-Sen. Luther Strange, R-Ala., in September, Trump’s errant remarks about forcing NFL players to stand during the national anthem became the main storyline out of a trip intended to draw attention to a GOP primary candidate.

Trump tends to earn praise for his speeches when he hews closely to prepared remarks and eschews the kind of bluster for which he is known. His economic address in Davos, Switzerland, last week was considered a success because he delivered a focused message without straying into the controversial territory he frequents during public appearances.

Former President Barack Obama improvised a zinger during his 2015 address that played well with his supporters when — after noting that he has “no more campaigns to run,” per the script, and attracting Republican cheers — he added that he “won them both.”

But Trump could risk allowing a spontaneous quip to become the sound bite networks pull from his address if he strays from the remarks his aides have spent weeks preparing.

3. What kind of tone will he strike?

Critics often describe Trump’s inaugural address, in which he referred to “American carnage,” as a dark and pessimistic speech.

Conversely, Trump worked to include a sense of hope in his address last year to a joint session of Congress — the theme of which was the “renewal of the American spirit.”

Whether Trump’s first State of the Union address is more ominous or optimistic remains an open question.

White House aides have indicated Trump’s speech will tout the economic confidence his presidency inspired over the past year and focus on the accomplishments his administration has notched. A senior administration official said Friday Trump will aim to strike a “unifying” and “bipartisan” tone during his address.

4. Will Trump negotiate on immigration or set the terms?

Trump dedicated a significant part of his address to a joint session of Congress last year to immigration reform, and he laid out his principles for what a bipartisan deal could look like.

“I believe that real and positive immigration reform is possible, as long as we focus on the following goals: to improve jobs and wages for Americans; to strengthen our nation’s security; and to restore respect for our laws,” Trump said last year. “If we are guided by the well-being of American citizens, then I believe Republicans and Democrats can work together to achieve an outcome that has eluded our country for decades.”

The White House began rolling out Trump’s immigration reform proposal last week, much to the dismay of some in both parties who found it too hard-line conservative or too liberal.

Trump said Monday the speech he would deliver one day later would touch on immigration, noting the address would contain passages about his immigration plan and the need for it to garner bipartisan support.

“The Republicans really don’t have the votes to get it done in any other way, so it has to be bipartisan,” Trump said. “But hopefully the Democrats will join us, or enough of them will join us, so we can really do something great.”

Trump could use his State of the Union platform to argue the merits of his administration’s plan. However, he could also use the speech to call on Congress to negotiate the kind of deal that could satisfy the broad criteria he laid out during his joint address last year.

5. Will he mention the failed Obamacare fight?

The failures of Obamacare factored heavily into Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress last year, when Republicans still had high hopes for repealing the healthcare law and replacing it with a system conservatives could support.

But the GOP’s inability to build consensus behind an Obamacare replacement last summer took the issue off the table for Republicans for the foreseeable future as they head into an election year, when members will likely be even less inclined to make hard decisions.

Although repealing Obamacare was a major component of his address to Congress last year, Trump may steer clear of the topic this year due to the recognition among Republicans that a deal on healthcare is not a practical priority to pursue in 2018.

6. How much credit will he take for tax cuts and economic growth?

Trump touted his efforts to shepherd tax reform through Congress when he visited the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, and he credited the tax cuts in part for sparking widespread economic growth in the U.S.

The president may spend much of his State of the Union address taking a victory lap on the wage increases and job creation the tax cuts have already spurred.

However, Trump could also spend that time praising the GOP-controlled Congress for passing the tax law and using the success as an argument in favor of electing more Republicans in November.

With Republican majorities on the line this year, Trump and other GOP leaders have indicated that tax reform — which Democrats sought to block last year — will be a major selling point in midterm races across the country. Trump may try to lay the foundation for that argument during his speech on Tuesday.

7. How much time will he dedicate to the foreign policy challenges ahead?

Trump is likely to focus on national security and the need to strengthen the U.S. military in his address.

How specifically he details the national security challenges that face Americans from countries around the world is an open question.

The State of the Union address may not provide Trump with the kind of platform that is suitable for answering the lingering questions that surround his strategy for Syria, for denuclearizing North Korea, and for containing Iran, for example.

Trump may outline his broad goals for fixing some of those global threats, or he may just simply mention them in the context of fortifying U.S. defense systems.

But uncertainty about how the president plans to ease rising tensions with North Korea will likely remain once Trump concludes his speech on Tuesday.

8. Will he extend an olive branch to Democrats?

With a handful of Democratic members boycotting the address this week and others planning to wear black in solidarity with a cause that few associate with Trump, the president may find bridge-building during his speech to be a challenge.

Democrats have accused the White House of negotiating in bad faith on immigration, and the chances of striking a bipartisan deal on any major policy item seem to grow dimmer by the week as members spar over everything from the Russia probe to the level of Trump’s sympathy for feminists.

“I don’t know if he needs to extend an olive branch more to Democratic politicians, but he does need to appeal to traditionally Democratic constituencies, especially labor, and make them put pressure on the Democrats to stop obstructing his agenda items,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist.

Trump could dedicate portions of his speech on Tuesday to an argument in favor of bipartisanship and civility. However, that approach carries risk, as some may not find Trump a credible voice for a message of moderation.

9. Does he unveil a specific infrastructure plan?

The White House has said Trump will talk about infrastructure during his speech on Tuesday.

Once a policy area that held promise as a concept both sides could support, infrastructure reform could fall victim to the same partisan forces that have blocked or severely complicated the passage of almost all other pieces of legislation that Congress has confronted since Trump took office.

The president has yet to reveal the details of an infrastructure plan the White House has repeatedly teased but continued to keep under wraps.

During his address to Congress last year, Trump spoke at length about the need for both parties to get behind infrastructure while offering little in the way of specifics about what such a policy could look like.

“I will be asking Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in infrastructure of the United States — financed through both public and private capital — creating millions of new jobs,” Trump said last year. “This effort will be guided by two core principles: buy American and hire American.”

Trump could seize the opportunity on Tuesday to fill in the blanks surrounding the infrastructure plan his administration has long described as a priority. He could also continue to keep discussions about infrastructure conceptual and save the policy details — which could prove more divisive than his team wants to get in his State of the Union address — for a later date.