This presidential election cycle has defied conventional wisdom in so many ways that the list is about as long as Martin Luther’s Ninety-Five Theses. Who would have thought a year ago we’d find ourselves here—with these specific candidates and many an “October surprise”—with less than 24 hours before Election Day?
To top it all off, who would have guessed “Carlos Danger” would be the low-hanging fruit that would tighten the race? Recent national and state polls show Donald Trump closing the gap with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, to the point that he’s caught up to her in crucial battlegrounds like North Carolina and Florida.
Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects of some polling data has been the black vote. Rasmussen Reports pegged Trump’s support among likely black voters at 18 percent in its poll released Friday. Keep in mind that according to 2012 exit polls, Mitt Romney only garnered six percent of the black vote overall.
This 2016 Rasmussen figure has fluctuated from 11 to 23 percent in the past week and a half, but it has consistently been in the double digits in a four-way race. The number has doubled since the beginning of October, as Gateway Pundit points out, and would be historic if Trump did win this high of a percentage of the black vote. Some other media polls are more in line with the 2012 exit polls for black voters—seven percent in the McClatchy poll from Friday and six percent in the IBD/TIPP poll released Monday in a four-way race. (Some polls excluded here group non-white respondents together when breaking down responses by race.)
Here are Rasmussen’s numbers, including responses to the question, “Are you sure that you will vote for this candidate or is it possible that something could change your mind between now and Election Day?”
| Date | Trump | Certainty of Vote |
| 11/7 | 12% | 78% |
| 11/4 | 18% | 86% |
| 11/3 | 23% | 85% |
| 11/2 | 14% | 83% |
| 11/1 | 17% | 82% |
| 10/31 | 11% | 80% |
| 10/28 | 12% | 84% |
| 10/27 | 13% | 87% |
| 10/26 | 11% | 93% |
| 10/25 | 16% | 93% |
The irony of Trump’s relative success among black voters, if the Rasmussen polls are anywhere near accurate, is that it comes in the midst of the full court press President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, and Hillary Clinton have invoked lately, specifically to appeal to black voters. The president was practically hysterical on Friday—he even referenced Trump and the KKK in his remarks, saying, “If you accept the support of Klan sympathizers, and hesitate when asked about that support, then you’ll tolerate that support when you’re in office.” His vitriol was unmatched. He was basically trying to scare voters to the polls, not just to protect his legacy, but, in his mind, to save America.
And Michelle and Hillary hugging after Michelle stumped for Hillary? Taylor Swift’s song “Bad Blood” would have been most appropriate to play in the backdrop.
Their histrionics could confirm some troubling internal campaign polls to warrant such a spectacle. Perhaps some of the WikiLeaks emails, including the Podesta emails about Eric Garner, had an impact. Garner’s daughter Erica tweeted:
I’m troubled by the revelation that you and this campaign actually discussed “using” Eric Garner … Why would you want to “use” my dad?
— officialERICA GARNER (@es_snipes) October 27, 2016
Additionally, Democrats still can’t bridge the enthusiasm gap between Trump and Hillary—and even between Obama and Hillary—especially among millennials. A lot of young people supported Bernie Sanders in the primaries, after all.
“There’s almost 17 million young people who’ve turned 18 since 2012,” according to Abby Kiesa, Director of Impact at Tufts University’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, or CIRCLE. Since they’re not on the voter rolls yet, they are harder to contact by campaigns and pollsters alike. They are also more unpredictable; after all, one in five black male voters under 30 did vote for Romney in 2012.
Even the Washington Post pointed out the lack of enthusiasm among black voters—millennials, older generations, and men and women alike.
Increased black voter turnout traditionally helps Democrats. This year, Obama and Hillary may want to rethink their strategy; when the last vote is cast, we may find out their efforts backfired right into Trump’s playbook.
