The Cardinal is back, after a few days in the tropics chasing Huguenots and converting the lost. I see Romney has captured his long sought endorsement from Sen. Judd Gregg. While endorsements are worth little in New Hampshire, they are very helpful in spinning elite media and keeping donors happy. Romney will get some good mileage from this. And it will be a nice press big-foot on Rudy’s New Hampshire trip this week. In Iowa, a new University of Iowa poll is out, with interesting results. Romney is still ahead at 36 percent, with Rudy and Huckabee tied for second at 13 percent each. Not the expectations-reducer Romney could really use, but winning is still winning. This is a wide-sample poll and as such it is likely to include some non-caucus-goers, so Romney and Rudy are probably higher than reality, but not that much higher. (Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Iowa caucus is not an ultra-low-turnout event; these numbers are probably close to where the race stands at this still early and unsettled moment.) Rudy’s Iowa expectations ruse is becoming more and more transparent; trash talk Iowa and pretend you don’t care at all about it while working a serious but stealthy effort to score second or third and bounce into New Hampshire with big momentum. Then you can beat Romney there and run the table. Not a crazy plan at all, especially if the media are thick-headed enough to fall for such an obvious expectations manipulation. Meanwhile Thompson’s Iowa standing is waning a bit. He should give campaigning a try. Look for paid ads up on the air, and soon. The big news in the Iowa poll is a statistical tie between Hillary Rodham Clinton at 29 percent and Barack Obama at 27 percent. The same wide-sample discount mentioned above applies to these Democratic numbers as well, but the fact is Hillary has nothing like a lock on Iowa. Nonetheless, the national media continue to crown HRC as the nominee – which is not so bad for Obama, because all this Hillary hype now merely cranks the guillotine blade higher and higher into the air should she lose Iowa. That would open the windows of Heaven to another great flood. In this new poll, it looks as if some of Edwards’s support is melting off to Obama. I’ve mentioned this before, but it’s worth saying again. If the combined Edwards/Richardson/Biden vote – 32 percent in this poll – declines in the final stretch to, say, 21 percent, where does that lost 11 percent of the caucus vote go? I think it breaks two to one or better to Obama. And if that’s correct, this poll approximately would read: HRC 32 percent, Obama 35 percent.
