President Donald Trump, long the party’s most influential kingmaker, is keeping unusually quiet in some of 2026’s biggest Republican primaries, creating power vacuums across the map as candidates, donors, and governors wait for endorsements that still haven’t come.
Republicans control both chambers, but their margins are thin enough that Democrats would only need to flip a handful of seats to retake power and shut down large parts of Trump’s agenda for the rest of his term.
A Democratic takeover of the House would also revive the threat of impeachment, a process that Trump had to battle against twice in his first term. In a year when even minor shifts in the map could reshape the course of his presidency, Trump’s endorsements have never mattered more, which makes his restraint all the more striking.
Republican strategists say the caution is intentional. “You’re seeing more maturity and calculation now, a shrewd operation deciding what helps his agenda and what doesn’t,” said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and former Trump administration appointee.
Bartlett added that Trump’s influence hasn’t diminished even as he’s become more selective. “He continues to be a rare bird in that respect; arguably, he just forced out one of his top allies and friends, Marjorie Taylor Greene, with the threat of endorsing a primary opponent,” he said. “He doesn’t have to hit send on an endorsement for it to matter.
He pointed to past cycles where Trump’s quick endorsements propelled candidates who went on to lose winnable races, including Senate nominees like Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia, who easily won primaries but faltered with general-election voters. “That MAGA endorsement is getting harder to get. In the past, it was reflexive. Now he’s willing to play political analyst before he makes any decision.”
Texas three-way dance
That evolution is reshaping several of the most closely watched primaries of 2026. In Texas, four-term Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Attorney General Ken Paxton are locked in one of the cycle’s most personal and divisive races, with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) also in the mix. All three have long-standing relationships with Trump, and all three have aggressively courted him; yet, Trump has not picked a side. Even allies describe his approach in Texas as “uncharacteristically quiet,” given how decisive his endorsement could be in a contest defined more by personal loyalty and rivalry than ideology.
Brian Seitchik, a Republican strategist who has worked on multiple statewide campaigns, said the financial contrast alone gives Trumpworld a reason to hold off. “Certainly, if Paxton is the nominee, it will cost more money than if Cornyn is the nominee; that’s not a judgment, that’s a statement of fact,” he said. “Cornyn is a great fundraiser, and Paxton is not. Texas is still a win-the-primary, win-the-state environment in most cases, but Republicans would have to spend a lot more if Paxton leads the ticket.”
Georgia on a knife-edge
A similar dynamic is unfolding in Georgia, where the Republican Senate primary has devolved into a chaotic and deeply fractured contest. Gov. Brian Kemp has thrown his support behind former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, putting him at odds with Trump-aligned Reps. Mike Collins (R-GA) and Buddy Carter (R-GA). All three are fighting to prove themselves as the rightful torchbearer of Trump’s political brand, and outside groups expect Trump’s endorsement to be determinative. Despite the pressure, he hasn’t weighed in.
A GOP strategist, speaking on background, said Collins is widely viewed as the strongest contender in the field and is likely getting a close look from Trump’s political team. The strategist said they “wouldn’t be surprised” if the White House Political Affairs Office pushed for an endorsement sometime in the first quarter of 2026.
Kentucky seeks McConnell successor
Kentucky’s open Senate seat, created by Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) retirement, has attracted former Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY), and businessman Nate Morris. Kentucky’s GOP Senate fight, already one of the priciest and fiercest contests of the 2026 cycle, is increasingly seen as a test of where the Republican Party is headed. The dynamics became even more sensitive after Morris attempted to imply he had Trump’s support, a claim firmly rejected by Trump allies. The episode highlighted the political cost of overreaching in a cycle where proximity to Trump is treated as currency. Yet Trump himself has so far stayed neutral.
Cassidy hopes for neutrality in Louisiana
In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces an angry conservative base and a growing lineup of Republicans eager to challenge him. State Rep. Julie Emerson has announced her intention to run, and several other GOP officeholders, including Treasurer John Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and St. Tammany Parish Councilwoman Kathy Seiden, are considering or launching campaigns. Two political newcomers, former Navy aviator and professor Randall Arrington and LSU Health–Shreveport compliance officer Sammy Wyatt, have also entered the race, hoping to tap into anti-Cassidy sentiment.
Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, told Punchbowl News the White House communicated it would remain neutral. “Of course, I’d love an endorsement,” he said, “but I have worked really hard for the people of Louisiana over the last two terms.” Even without Trump’s backing, challengers continue to invoke his name, testing whether opposition to Cassidy can unify enough of the pro-Trump base to threaten an incumbent.
Lack of endorsement in Maine
In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is seeking another term and remains one of the few GOP incumbents Trump has not endorsed. Her impeachment vote and opposition to some of Trump’s key legislative priorities are still viewed as unresolved grievances. While she faces no significant primary opposition, the absence of an endorsement stands out in a cycle where Trump has already backed nearly all other Republican senators running again.
Trump’s selectivity is also visible in key House races. In Kentucky, he weighed in forcefully against Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), endorsing a primary challenger after Massie opposed the GOP’s signature legislative package, a sign that Trump still intervenes decisively when a lawmaker crosses him, even as he withholds endorsements in larger statewide contests.
The broader White House political operation is already active. Vice President JD Vance has been holding rallies in battleground states like Michigan and Georgia, previewing the scaled-up 2026 effort. Trump himself has confirmed plans for a midterm “convention” designed to showcase what he describes as the administration’s achievements since returning to office, a move advisers say could become the centerpiece of the party’s mobilization strategy.
Yet for now, Trump’s approach to endorsements remains defined by caution.
Seitchik said the White House’s patience reflects the reality that most voters aren’t yet tuned in. “It’s smart for the president to let these races continue to unfold,” he said, noting that Cornyn has recently gained ground in polling after many in the ‘DC chattering class’ had written him off. “Most voters don’t begin to pay attention until 90 days out. It’s hard to judge the strength of a campaign 150 or 200 days out.”
Bartlett said the White House appears to be weighing loyalty, geography, polling, and personal relationships more methodically than in past cycles. “Situational at best,” he said, describing the president’s view of loyalty versus electability. “His instincts are still there, but you’re seeing a much more calculated politician and machine.” He added that Trump’s team wants to keep the president focused on governing while major legislative fights unfold. “Once you get through these priorities, I think you’ll see him spring right back into campaign mode,” he said.
Joe Gruters, chairman of the Republican National Committee, told Florida Voice News that the party’s recruitment strategy is grounded in electability. “You can’t have Ted Cruz run in Maine, and you can’t have Susan Collins run in Texas,” he said. “We look for winners.”
He emphasized that the goal is fielding “the most conservative candidate who can win,” a phrase that has quietly become the RNC’s guiding principle as it works in tandem with Trump’s political operation.
TRUMP’S 2026 ENDORSEMENTS: WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT, AND WHO’S WAITING
“It’s clear the White House is going to need at least one more round of fundraising numbers and polling to get a good idea of which horse to back in some of these races,” said a GOP insider familiar with the endorsement operation. “Nobody wants to blow a winnable race.”
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on its endorsement strategy.
