Ukrainian citizens living in districts seized by Russian troops could soon find themselves confronted with Syrian fighters and “other mercenaries” hired by Russia to occupy the restive districts, according to British intelligence analysts.
The assessment underscores the degree to which Ukraine’s staunch resistance has wreaked havoc on Moscow’s initial battle plan, forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to scramble to find reserve forces to throw into the war zone. The British findings also shed light on the reports that paramilitary forces aligned with Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad could furnish Russia with fresh reserves.
“Russia is redeploying forces from as far afield as its Eastern Military District, Pacific Fleet, and Armenia. It is also increasingly seeking to exploit irregular sources such as private military companies, Syrian and other mercenaries,” Royal Air Force Air Vice-Marshal Mick Smeath, the defense attache at the U.K. Embassy in Washington, said Tuesday evening, citing the British Defense Ministry’s Defense Intelligence team. “Russia will likely attempt to use these forces to hold captured territory and free up its combat power to renew stalled offensive operations.”
Such measures could be an indirect index of the lethality of Ukrainian forces, which have used a variety of NATO-supplied anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles — and even homemade weapons, such as Molotov cocktails — to repel Russian attacks on many cities around the country.
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“It’s an indication of desperation, a recognition that their ground attack has stalled and they don’t have the forces that they need to go in and occupy these cities,” retired Ambassador Bill Taylor, who led the U.S. diplomatic mission in Ukraine on two separate occasions, told the Washington Examiner. “They’re learning that it’s very hard to take these cities.”
Any arriving contingents of Syrian fighters would embody Putin’s turn to the brutal tactics that allowed Russian and Assadist forces to grind down much of the Syrian rebel forces in the years since Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war. Putin hinted at such a measure in a public address to his security council last week.
“If you see that there are these people who want of their own accord, not for money, to come to help the people living in Donbas, then we need to give them what they want and help them get to the conflict zone,” the Russian leader said.
On the other hand, Russian defense officials have threatened any Western fighters who agree to join Ukraine’s international legion by declaring that they would not be “considered as combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or enjoy the status of prisoners of war” if encountered on the battlefield.
Putin’s comments, along with the British assessment, raise the likelihood that Assad-aligned forces would be used to maintain control of cities in eastern Ukraine, where Russia’s offensive has been more effective relative to its assault on Kyiv. One major city, Kherson, already has fallen, although the residents continue to demonstrate against the occupation. Another key port city, Mariupol, continues to resist attacks despite withering bombardments from Russia.
The civilian opposition to the Russian invasion presents a challenge to Putin’s justifications for the “special military operation,” as he calls it.
“I would like to emphasize again that Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space,” Putin insisted in the days leading up to the invasion. “These are our comrades, those dearest to us — not only colleagues, friends, and people who once served together but also relatives, people bound by blood, by family ties.”
That justification might prove more difficult to sustain if Putin feels the need to send Syrian fighters to control defiant Ukrainian citizens.
“It undermines the narrative,” Taylor said. “It’s also probably not effective because they’re not going to be Russian speakers or Ukrainian speakers, no doubt, so they’re not going to be able to be effective on the ground. This is not going well for Russia.”
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Yet Putin might not feel like he has a choice if he wants to continue the invasion. “Continued personnel losses will also make it difficult for Russia to secure occupied territory,” said Smeath, the British official.
