House Republicans are targeting the Rio Grande Valley in 2022, identifying South Texas as a fertile electoral crescent after then-President Donald Trump supercharged GOP turnout last year and transformed the traditional Democratic stronghold into a competitive battleground.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is investing resources to flip three Democrat-held districts that only narrowly supported then-candidate Joe Biden over Trump in November after overwhelmingly voting for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton four years earlier. House Republicans are confident the party’s growth in the heavily Hispanic border region of Texas was not an aberration but rather a possible sea change that will deliver for the party in the midterm elections if properly nurtured.
“National Democrats assumed Latino voters would just automatically show up to support their candidate. They continue to make these assumptions even with a crisis at the border that impacts these communities,” a Republican strategist in Texas said. “Republicans in Texas have put resources into engaging voters in the RGV and all along the Texas border to bring them into the party, and the results show it.”
Some political analysts have referred to the results of the 2020 election in South Texas as “catastrophic” for the Democratic Party. Some Democratic strategists concede the surge of illegal border crossings since Trump left office could create challenges for the party in the Rio Grande Valley in 2022, and they acknowledge the GOP holds some appeal for Hispanic men, particularly those who own firearms. But House Democrats are generally dismissive.
They chalk up the Republican Party’s surprisingly robust performance in the region last year to Trump’s ability to turn out low-propensity GOP voters and their own party’s decision largely to abandon in-person voter turnout operations to mitigate the risk of spreading and contracting the coronavirus. Door-knocking is accepted by both parties as the most effective way to turn out voters. But Democrats say the tactic is especially necessary to keep Hispanic communities in the area engaged.
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“Not a single Republican can take credit for the economic comeback that is creating jobs and boosting business across South Texas right now, and we plan to hit the doors and the airwaves to deliver that message to voters,” said Monica Robinson, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
“Last election, Democrats put public health over politics and hit pause on face-to-face organizing to keep our volunteers, staff, and voters safe during the pandemic,” she continued. “Now, thanks to Democrats’ leadership on America’s recovery from this pandemic, we’re on course to resume in-person organizing to reach South Texas communities and mobilize our voters.”
The decennial redistricting process might yet alter the partisanship of Texas’s House seats. But for now, Republicans are excited about their opportunities in the perennial blue 15th, 28th, and 34th congressional districts given the gains Trump made in 2020 versus 2016. Against Clinton, Trump lost all three seats by an average of 19.3 percentage points. Against Biden, Trump fell short by an average of just 3.4 points.
The improvement in GOP performance was best exemplified by what happened in Zapata County, situated in the 28th District, represented by centrist Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar. In 2016, Clinton pummeled Trump, 66% to 33%. Four years later, the county swung to Trump, who defeated Biden there with 52% to 47%, marking the biggest blue-to-red shift of any county in the 2020 election.
The NRCC has responded by running digital and radio advertising in the 15th District, targeting Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez with accusations that he is a socialist sympathizer. He is facing a challenge from Republican Monica De La Cruz-Hernandez, who has been endorsed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Meanwhile, in the 34th District, Democratic Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. The NRCC believes the issue set in Washington disadvantages the Democrats.
The Republican voters in the Rio Grande Valley reject calls from some Democrats to abolish the police and the Border Patrol, are receptive to GOP arguments that the Democrats have embraced socialist economic policies, among them Biden’s proposed tax increases, oppose the president’s climate change policies, and are uncomfortable with the administration’s relaxed approach to border security.
