President Trump will give House Republicans a pep talk on Thursday just before they vote on a major tax reform bill, but Republicans don’t think they’ll need it and believe they are on track to easily pass the bill before heading home for Thanksgiving break.
“Eight ‘no’ votes on the Republican side,” predicted Rep Mark Meadows, R-N.C., who is head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, predicted.
The GOP can afford up to 22 defections, and while the whip team has not officially declared victory, the top vote counter suggested passage is all but assured when the vote gavels in Thursday.
“Our members are incredibly focused on passing this bill and we are going to get this bill passed,” House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., told the Washington Examiner.
House Republicans will hear from Trump when he visits them in the U.S. Capitol early Thursday to deliver what many predict will be a speech urging them to pass the tax legislation, which cuts tax rates for individuals and slashes taxes for small businesses and corporations.
It will be the party’s second attempt to pass a major legislative agenda item since taking control of both Congress and the White House in January.
After failing to pass legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare, the GOP’s first big campaign promise, many Republican lawmakers believe they must now pass tax reform or face major losses in the 2018 midterm elections. And that seems to have kept GOP lawmakers mostly together on the bill.
“We’ve got to get on with keeping our promise, and one of the chief promises we made when we ran for office … in 2016 was that we would do tax reform and tax cuts for families, for people, and so we’ve got to get on with that,” House Speaker Paul Ryan told the Washington Examiner last week.
Tax reform hasn’t been much of a hard sell for GOP leaders. Most Republicans view the bill as a pro-growth plan that provides savings to middle-income earners, not the rich.
Republicans have frequently touted that the average family of four earning just under $60,000 annually will save nearly $1,200.
“The American people have waited years for a fair, simple, and competitive tax code,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, said in a floor speech during debate on Wednesday. “Right now, in this moment, we stand on the doorstep of delivering the most sweeping tax overhaul since President Reagan’s reform in 1986.”
The Senate this week is marking up a separate tax reform bill and plans to vote on it the week after Thanksgiving, Senate GOP leaders said.
House Republicans did not follow a move by the Senate GOP, which inserted a provision in their tax bill that would repeal the Obamacare mandate. Unlike the Senate plan, the House bill sticks to tax reform, which many House Republicans prefer.
There are still undecided votes, however.
Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., appeared to lean in favor of the bill but told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday he has still not fully made up his mind. Dent said he’d like to get rid of a provision that phases out the estate tax, among other changes.
“I’ve got some issues I’m raising with leadership,” Dent said.
Lawmakers planning to vote against the said they would not change their minds by Thursday. The “no” votes represent districts from high tax states including New York and New Jersey, where taxpayers will potentially be hurt by the bill’s repeal of the state and local tax deduction.
Republican tax writers lured in some of the New Jersey and New York Republicans by reinstating the property tax deduction with a cap.
A lone GOP member of the California delegation, Rep. Darrell Issa, is planning to vote against the bill because voters in his high-income, high-tax San Diego district will end up paying more under the plan, he said.
“I don’t view the House as having done anything to deal with the $92,000 per capita district I represent and the income taxes they are paying because in my district,” Issa said.
While most conservatives are voting for the bill, Rep. Walter Jones, R-N.C., won’t be among them, despite pressure from super PAC advertising in his district urging him to vote for the bill. Jones disagrees with the elimination of popular tax deductions, such as the one for medical expenses, and said he feared big tax cuts will increase the deficit.
“There are just so many things like that in the bill that bothers me greatly,” Jones said.
But most Republicans were happy to support a bill that would satisfy a basic GOP goal: letting income earners keep more of their money.
“This is probably the biggest help we can give to the middle class,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Fla., told the Washington Examiner.
