As 2025 comes to an end, political eyes are not only turning toward next year’s midterm elections, but also toward the 2028 Republican presidential primary, as potoential candidates start posturing, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
DeSantis, 47, who, along with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, challenged President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican nomination, suspended his campaign after the Iowa caucuses.
But DeSantis’s maneuvering since his return to Florida, where he is term-limited as governor, indicates the possibility of another presidential bid, despite his protestations.
For example, DeSantis wants to redistrict Florida’s U.S. congressional map mid-decade to provide Republicans with more GOP-leaning seats in the House, but is encouraging, alongside state Senate President Ben Albritton, state House lawmakers to wait until next year after the Supreme Court decides Louisiana v. Callais. That case could repeal a prohibition on racial gerrymandering amid Florida’s own anti-gerrymandering rules.
DeSantis already pushed through a U.S. congressional map in 2022 that added four Republican seats in Florida compared to the original version that the state legislature passed and he vetoed, with the current U.S. congressional delegation comprised of 20 GOP members of Congress to eight Democratic counterparts.
The Florida governor is also taking his own position regarding artificial intelligence, proposing last week an AI bill of rights to govern the Sunshine State. His plan came ahead of Trump’s long-awaited executive order this week to federalize AI regulation.
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DeSantis’s bill of rights could instigate legal action against him by Attorney General Pam Bondi, a fellow Floridian, though he has downplayed that prospect, arguing it “doesn’t/can’t preempt state legislative action.”
Simultaneously, DeSantis has taken his own stance against newly designated terrorist organizations, declaring this week the Council on American Islamic Relations and the Muslim Brotherhood as ones, after another possible presidential candidate, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX), last month did the same.
Trump has only designated some Muslim Brotherhood chapters, such as those in Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan, as terrorist organizations.
University of Central Florida politics professor Aubrey Jewett agreed that DeSantis is “looking to the political future and a run for president,” underscoring DeSantis’s desire to get rid of or reduce property taxes for all Floridians who own their home through a state constitutional amendment as another example.
“If he succeeds, that will be a huge deal for his political future,” Jewett told the Washington Examiner. “He would point out that Florida is the first state to ever eliminate property taxes on homes and that he was the one that largely made it happen. The low tax wing of the Republican Party is huge — pretty much the one issue that brings almost every Republican together — and so that would give DeSantis serious bragging rights and a potential lane for the primary.”
Jewett similarly cited DeSantis’s role as the national cochairman of advocacy group U.S. Term Limits, which “helps keep him visible on a popular issue with many voters and gives him a little bipartisan credibility as well.” DeSantis, himself, was a three-term congressman.
Regarding the latest redistricting endeavor, Jewett predicts a new U.S. congressional map could add three to five more Republican seats.
“The governor and legislators will deny that they are doing it for partisan reasons because the Fair Districts Amendment to the Florida Constitution makes drawing lines with the intent to favor a party unconstitutional, but will instead point to racial redistricting and the current case being decided by the Supreme Court out of Louisiana,” he said, adding, “Again, there is no guarantee as the Florida House and Senate currently seem to be on different pages, but I would bet that there will be a new map and it will add GOP seats and DeSantis will be able to take some credit for it.”
Irrespective of that posturing, University of South Florida government professor emeritus Darryl Paulson emphasized that problems that undermined DeSantis’s 2024 campaign two years after the Ivy League-trained judge advocate general lawyer and Iraq War veteran’s landslide reelection as governor in 2022 may not have dissipated.
“After a quick and inglorious defeat in the Republican presidential nomination process, DeSantis was viewed by many as a political retread who lacked charisma,” Paulson told the Washington Examiner. “In a comparison with Democratic president Franklin Delano Roosevelt, I said that if DeSantis had to give a fireside chat, the fire would go out.”
When asked if DeSantis has any chance of winning the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, Paulson responded that “more people are asking if … DeSantis has any future in national politics at all.”
“His path to the White House is less obvious for 2028 than it was when he ran in 2024,” he said. “A popular national betting site gives DeSantis only a 3% chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2028, let alone winning the presidency.”
To that end, Vice President JD Vance, on average, polls at 53% support for the 2028 Republican nomination, compared to DeSantis’s 45% and the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr.’s, 10%, according to RealClearPolitics. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Haley, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2026 Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) all poll in the single digits, though Rubio is at 8% compared to the next best performing possible candidate, Haley, who is at 4.5%.
For Jewett, DeSantis’s political future rests on Trump’s perception among Republican voters because if the president is popular and endorses Vance or Rubio, it would be difficult for the governor “to break through.”
“If Trump’s popularity dims, and there are some signs that has begun to happen among independents and just a little among 2024 GOP supporters, then DeSantis has a much more obvious lane in which to run and possibly succeed,” he said. “Basically selling himself as a successful conservative governor of a large state that became much more ‘red’ because of his policies, but without most of the personal baggage that always seems to accompany Trump that even some of his supporters don’t really care for.”
He continued, “DeSantis’ political future is not as bright as it was in late 2023 and early 2024, but he is certainly a viable candidate for 2028 and maybe even one of the strongest depending on the political environment.”
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Paulson remained uncertain. He said, “Although DeSantis was once viewed as ‘Trump without the baggage,’ as one of his positive features in 2024, he is now seen by many as looking like an overstuffed suitcase,” especially in response to criticism regarding accepting the president’s endorsement in 2018 before running against him in 2024.
“DeSantis will be in the fortunate position of having almost two full years to campaign for the presidency without worrying about political encumbrances,” he said. “He will have plenty of time to raise money, which he has shown the ability to do better than many politicians. If he can stop from putting voters to sleep, he may have as good a chance as any politician in the nation to win the presidential nomination in 2028.”
