Midterm Memo: Herschel Walker tries to regain footing amid abortion controversy

So, what has Walker spent his week — the first of five final weeks of a critical midterm election battle that could determine the Senate majority in January — talking about? Not inflation, not rising crime, not problems with security at the Mexican border. No. He’s spent the week, even in interviews with conservative journalists — especially with conservative journalists — denying that he paid for an ex-girlfriend to have an abortion because he did not want to father (another) child out of wedlock.

Perhaps worse, Walker has had to address questions about his son Christian Walker, a conservative social media influencer who has gone scorched-earth on his father in the wake of the allegations, first reported by the Daily Beast. On Wednesday, the outlet followed up its blockbuster story by reporting that the unnamed ex-girlfriend is the mother of one of the Republican candidate’s four children. In these interviews with conservative media, Walker is being given ample opportunity to prove that the allegations are, as he claims, a “flat-out lie” in an apparent effort to help his campaign get back on track.

Here’s the question put to Walker by conservative talk radio host Hugh Hewitt Thursday morning: “Herschel, it was not on my question set until [the Daily Beast] re-upped the story this morning and added to it a new allegation. So, just to put a bow on it, do you have any idea who this alleged former lover of yours is who says you paid for an abortion and fathered a child? Any idea whatsoever?” Walker responded at length, but here’s the crux of his answer: “I have no idea at all. … That never happened.”

The longer this goes on, the greater the opportunity for Warnock, a talented, well-funded politician in his own right, to survive the Biden drag. The longer this goes on, the fewer opportunities Walker will have to erase doubts about himself among the swing voters and independents in and around Atlanta who are poised to decide this still very close contest.

WALKER ABORTION ALLEGATIONS AND TONGUE-LASHING FROM SON COMPLICATE EFFORT TO UNSEAT WARNOCK

Walker, campaigning as a staunch opponent of abortion rights, might yet win this thing.

He’s a folk hero in Georgia dating back to the early 1980s, when he was a star football player for the University of Georgia, and later, during his career in the National Football League. Georgia Republicans nominated him overwhelmingly, even though he spent the last two decades living in Texas until he decided to run for Senate. Meanwhile, Walker enjoys the support of GOP figures such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former President Donald Trump, who recruited him into the race against Warnock to begin with (McConnell and Trump agree on almost nothing).

But you know what might help Walker win this thing, even more so than his record fundraising sparked by the controversy? Going back to putting his opponent on defense on the issues voters care about most — which would be much more doable, strategically, if he could stop answering questions about his checkered personal life. And what might help bring that about is that lawsuit Walker promised to file against the Daily Beast.

Then again, maybe there is a particular reason why Walker has, thus far, declined to take legal action in this matter. Like I said: Walker has a problem. Now, to the field …

By the #s:

• President Joe Biden’s job approval rating: RealClearPolitics — 42.8%; FiveThirtyEight — 42.3%
• Generic ballot: RealClearPolitics — Republicans edging Democrats 45.9% to 45.2%; FiveThirtyEight — Democrats edging Republicans 45.4% to 44.3%
• Direction of the country: RealClearPolitics — Right Track 26.9%/Wrong Track 66% (FiveThirtyEight average unavailable)
• Senate ratings change: Per Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, the Pennsylvania Senate race, featuring Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Dr. Mehment Oz (R), shifts from “Lean D” to “Toss-up.”

Ohio Senate race. Given everything — a midterm election cycle that broadly favors the Republicans, Biden’s low job approval ratings, and the Buckeye State’s recent transformation into a relatively red state — it’s remarkable just how competitive this contest is. How competitive?

The latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows Republican nominee J.D. Vance narrowly outpacing his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, 46.2% to 45%. The latest FiveThirtyEight average has Ryan topping Vance 45.4% to 43.8%.

In any event, Vance is hoping to shake things loose with a new campaign video focused on inflation. But it’s not your usual “inflation high, Biden bad” campaign spot so prevalent this cycle from Republicans (and for good reason).

In this spot, Vance connects rising prices to China. “Why are food and groceries getting so expensive? One reason is that we let Communist China buy up American farmland,” he says, looking straight to camera as he strolls across a pasture. “Tim Ryan and Joe Biden make this worse.”

Let’s see if this message from Vance creates the separation with Ryan Republicans might have expected at the outset of this campaign.

Battle for the House. Defending a thin majority that amounts to roughly a handful of seats in a political atmosphere blowing in the Republicans’ direction, House Democrats refuse to concede defeat.

And the last House race ratings adjustments from Dave Wasserman at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter offered Democrats reasons for hope — seven reasons, to be exact. Of the 10 ratings changes, Wasserman moved seven House races toward the Democrats and just three toward the Republicans:

• California’s 9th Congressional District, Rep. Josh Harder (D), moves from “Lean D” to “Likely D”
• Florida’s 7th Congressional District, open seat, moves from “Likely R” to “Solid R”
• Florida’s 27th Congressional District, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R), moves from “Likely R” to “Lean R”
• Illinois’s 6th Congressional District, Rep. Sean Casten (D), moves from “Lean D” to “Likely D”
• Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, moves from “Likely R” to “Lean R”
• Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, Rep. Dan Kildee (D), moves from “Toss-up” to “Lean D”
• Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, Rep. Steven Horsford (D), moves from “Toss-up” to “Lean D”
• Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District, Rep. Susan Wild (D), moves from “Lean R” to “Toss-up”
• Texas’s 15th Congressional District, open seat, moves from “Lean R” to “Likely R”
• Texas’s 34th Congressional District, Rep. Mayra Flores (R) vs. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, moves from “Lean D” to “Toss-up”

But Wasserman emphasizes just how much House Democrats are swimming upstream by highlighting this statistic: “House ratings: 211 seats at least Lean R, 194 seats at least Lean D, 30 Toss Ups. In other words, Dems would still need to win 24/30 Toss Ups (80%) to keep their majority.”

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2024 watch. Nothing tests an elected chief executive like a natural disaster. Whether earthquakes, fires, floods, or hurricanes, governors have seen their political ambitions made or broken based on how they’ve handled these acts of God and their aftermath.

Rick Perry, when the Republican was governor of Texas, arguably bought himself another term in office, just as voters were tiring of him, because of his competent management of Hurricane Ike in 2008. The end of President George W. Bush’s post-Sept. 11, 2001, popularity arguably began in 2005 with dissatisfaction with his administration’s handling of Hurricane Katrina.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) isn’t likely to pat himself on the back for his leadership of the Sunshine State as it recovers from the devastation of Hurricane Ian. It’s among the worst such storms ever to strike Florida, causing billions of dollars in horrific damage and leaving more than 100 people dead.

Indeed, it’s possible that DeSantis could, at some point, come under fire for his management of the recovery — or for his approach to the lead-up to Hurricane Ian and how he handled the evacuation orders.

But for now, it doesn’t get any better than receiving high praise from both Biden and Trump, two adversaries who can’t agree on anything — other than, for very different reasons, that they don’t like DeSantis all that much.

And that’s the sort of portrait of strong leadership that could show up in messaging and advertising for a future DeSantis presidential campaign, should one materialize, as many Republican insiders suspect it will.