The race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton couldn’t be closer in North Carolina 15 days before the November election, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
Clinton carries a single-point lead over her Republican opponent — 47-46 percent — in the latest survey of likely voters in the Tar Heel state, which awarded its 15 electoral votes to GOP nominee Mitt Romney four years ago. Four percent of North Carolina voters currently plan to support Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson on Election Day.
While Trump maintains a sizable lead among white voters (59-35 percent), he trails Clinton by 62 percentage points among black, Hispanic and Asian voters. The Republican presidential hopeful has seen an increase in his support among non-college educated white voters, however, growing from 44-49 percentage points since August.
Early voting began in North Carolina on Oct. 20, and Clinton currently holds a sizable lead among those who cast their ballots by mail or in-person ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to the poll, which included about 50 respondents who had already voted.
In the race for North Carolina’s Senate seat, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr has expanded his lead from 2 percentage points to 6 percentage points since August. He now leads former Democratic state Rep. Deborah Ross 49-43 percent.
Burr earns a positive job approval rating from likely voters within his home state and is also seen more favorably than unfavorably by his constituents.
Interestingly, the poll found the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial race in North Carolina shifting by 3-4 percentage points toward Democrats when the voters least likely to turn out — Trump supporters and Republicans who back Clinton — were removed from the pool of respondents.
“If both types of voters stay away from on Election Day, it could have a negative effect on GOP candidates down the ballot,” said Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray in a statement accompanying the poll.
The survey of 402 likely voters in battleground North Carolina was conducted from Oct. 20-23, after the second presidential debate last Wednesday and Trump’s major speech in Gettysburg, Pa., on Saturday. Results contain a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
