John McCain’s electoral hopes rely on Virginia. And right now, Virginia isn’t looking very reliable.
Running six points behind Barack Obama in an average of recent polls of the state, McCain has been forced to devote precious resources for a state that has gone to every Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon ran in 1968.
Virginia is not alone its must-win status for McCain. Losing any one of Florida, Ohio, Colorado or Virginia would likely mean the end of his presidential hopes.
The problem for McCain in Virginia is that while Republicans are used to running and winning close races in those other swing states, the GOP isn’t accustomed to the kind of battle they now find themselves fighting in the Old Dominion.
Having McCain and Sarah Palin campaigning in the state 22 days before the election should be proof enough of how the ground has shifted.
Less than a decade ago, Virginia Republicans were close to the kind of majority the party has seen elsewhere in the South. Republicans held the governor’s mansion, both houses of the state legislature and both U.S. Senate seats in Virginia just six years ago. After this year’s election, it’s likely all that will remain for the GOP will be a slim majority in the state’s House of Delegates.
What’s changed is that the Virginia suburbs of Washington aren’t so suburban anymore.
For decades, the northern part of the state was dominated politically by fiscally conservative, moderate Republicans from Fairfax County — people like lame-duck Rep. Tom Davis. It was a political environment that could be found in the more affluent suburbs of almost any major city.
But leafy suburban neighborhoods have given way to more urban settings, more ethnic diversity, more income disparity, more renters rather than owners, and, accordingly, more Democrats.
In 2004, George W. Bush won the state handily, but for the first time since 1964, the Republican candidate failed to take Fairfax County. Bush carried the state by 9 points. But the loss of Fairfax was a harbinger of Democratic victory in the 2005 gubernatorial race and the shocking victory of James Webb over incumbent senator and former Gov. George Allen the next year.
Old Dominion Republicans have been contending with the demographic changes now bedeviling John McCain for years. Their problem is that they still don’t have a solution.
