Republican Sen. Susan Collins is within striking distance of Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in the hotly contested Maine Senate race, according to a new poll.
The survey from Colby College in Waterville, Maine, conducted between Wednesday and Sunday, found Gideon leading Collins 46.6% to 43.4% among likely voters, with 3.6% undecided. Gideon’s margin over Collins is inside the poll’s margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. If the data in the poll are indicative of a late trend, Collins could be in a position to defeat Gideon, the speaker of the Maine House of Representatives, and win a fifth term.
“After more than $160 million coming in from all corners of the country, massive media attention, and untold hours of hard work, the race will probably come down to an age-old truism,” Dan Shea, the head of Colby College’s government department and the lead researcher on the poll, said in a statement. “It’s all about turnout.”
Both political parties and aligned outside groups, plus small grassroots donors on the Right and the Left, have spent tens of millions of dollars on this race alone. If Collins can hang on after trailing Gideon in nearly every public opinion poll for several months, the Senate Democrats might have a much harder time erasing the Republicans’ three-seat majority and winning control of the chamber.
The GOP is on defense across the country, trying to hold off Democratic challengers in nearly a dozen seats: Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, two seats in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina, South Carolina — plus Maine. The Republicans are on offense in only two contests: one in Alabama and the other in Michigan.
Meanwhile, the Colby College poll showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading President Trump statewide in Maine, 51% to 38%, with 8% undecided. Biden was slightly ahead of Trump in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, 46% to 42%, with 9% undecided. If Trump can overtake Biden in the 2nd District, he would net one vote in the Electoral College, as Maine distributes electoral votes per congressional district.
