New York Times columnist Paul Krugman speculated that President Trump got the Bureau of Labor Statistics to skew its May jobs report to create a rosier picture of the economy.
Krugman, who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, reacted with skepticism on Friday after the Labor Department announced unemployment had dropped to 13.3% when many economists expected the rate to soar above 20% because of the coronavirus pandemic’s effect on the economy.
“Well, the BLS reports a GAIN in jobs and a FALL in unemployment, which almost nobody saw coming. Maybe it’s true, and the BLS is definitely doing its best, but you do have to wonder what’s going on,” Krugman wrote. “I’ve been through a number of episodes over the years in which official numbers tell a story at odds with what more informal evidence suggests; often it turns out that there was something quirky (NOT fraudulent) about the official numbers.”
“This being the Trump era, you can’t completely discount the possibility that they’ve gotten to the BLS, but it’s much more likely that the models used to produce these numbers — they aren’t really raw data — have gone haywire in a time of pandemic,” he wrote. “Whatever happened, these numbers should make you more, not less, pessimistic about the economic outlook. Why? Because they will reinforce the White House inclination to do nothing and let emergency aid expire.”
I’ve been through a number of episodes over the years in which official numbers tell a story at odds with what more informal evidence suggests; often it turns out that there was something quirky (NOT fraudulent) about the official numbers. 2/
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 5, 2020
Whatever happened, these numbers should make you more, not less, pessimistic about the economic outlook. Why? Because they will reinforce the White House inclination to do nothing and let emergency aid expire 4/ https://t.co/yoo3F6TAo0
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) June 5, 2020
Krugman’s suggestion drew some pushback on social media.
Jason Furman, who was the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama, said that Krugman should “100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS,” adding, “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”
Erica Groshen, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, agreed, noting that there were “no red flags” in the data.
“As former BLS Commissioner, I see no red flags. And, knowing the processes used and integrity of BLS staff, I think it very unlikely. Commissioners see no number before it’s final. If I hear anything different, I’ll trumpet it loudly,” she wrote.
@jasonfurman is spot on. As former BLS Commissioner, I see no red flags. And, knowing the processes used and integrity of BLS staff, I think it very unlikely. Commissioners see no number before it’s final. If I hear anything different, I’ll trumpet it loudly. @Friends_of_BLS https://t.co/yjyXUuxAtA
— Erica Groshen (@EricaGroshen) June 5, 2020
Krugman has been a consistent critic of Trump and his economic policy. He predicted that Trump’s presidency would trigger a “global recession” during the early years of his first term.
The U.S. economy added 2.5 million jobs in May after shedding 1.4 million and 20.7 million jobs in March and April, respectively.
