Speculation about disgruntled Clinton Democrats defecting to McCain has been one of the subtexts of this very long primary season. I don’t buy it. I think Obama will eventually unify the self-identified Democrats and score big margins among these partisans in November. Independents may be a different story, but defections among self-identified Democrats have been at 10% or less in every presidential election since 1992, according to data from the American National Election Study at the University of Michigan. I see no reason why that pattern won’t continue. This Gallup poll released today supports that conclusion. It shows Obama beginning to improve among constituencies where he previously struggled–women, less well-educated voters, and whites. According to Gallup:
Expect to see more visible opposition from groups like this that talk about McCain’s “anti-women’s health” background. This will drive Democrat-leaning Clinton supporters into the Obama camp. Once Senator Clinton drops out, I expect the trends in the Gallup poll to continue, which will likely hurt McCain in the head-to-head match ups in the short run.
