Businessman and combat veteran John James has the inside track to the Republican nomination for Senate in Michigan after Rep. Fred Upton dropped plans to run and opted for re-election to the House.
James, a first-time candidate, outperformed Upton in public and private polling. That Republican primary voters prefer a novice outsider to a respected lawmaker with a lengthy record of accomplishment reveals the extent to which rejection of the political establishment is dominating GOP politics.
“You want someone who is real. That’s how President Trump got elected,” said Rep. Paul Mitchell, R-Mich., who broke ranks and endorsed James over Upton when the congressman was still considering a Senate bid, in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
James, 36, who is African American, is impressive. Many Republicans believe he could offer Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., the toughest race of her career, if he can maintain his polling position until the August primary.
James graduated from West Point and saw heavy combat in Iraq. After returning home, James took the reigns of his family’s multi-million dollar automotive logistics business, situated along the river in Southwest Detroit, and expanded it. It’s a resume that could appeal to the conservative grassroots who like Trump — and party insiders who value competence and seriousness.
James recently met with former Trump strategist Steve Bannon (sources connected to each claim the other party requested the meeting.) The chairman of Breitbart News saw in James the sort of outsider he is looking to back in Senate primaries next year as part of his proxy war with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., but he has not endorsed.
With Upton out of the race, look for James to court party insiders and major donors as well, to box out potential candidates who see an opening in the primary for a more mainstream Republican. Retired Judge Bob Young, James’ main existing competitor, could split the outsider vote if his dim prospects were to improve.
“Part of the reason I believe that we’ll win in 2018 is my ability to appeal to the base while not alienating traditional Republicans, but also bringing my experience to bear to appeal to level-headed, business-minded moderates and independents and being able to pull over some Democrats,” James said this month in a telephone interview with the Washington Examiner.
Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, the first Republican to win the state’s Electoral College votes in decades.
Recognizing the president’s strength with primary voters, James emphasized his support for Trump’s agenda, at home and abroad, while chiding Democrats for opposing him at every turn, although he described himself as an independent thinker who would lead “from the battlefield to the boardroom.”
“Our country has a great need, not for more rabble-rousers, not for more activists, not for more lawyers, not for more career politicians, but for more leaders — more proven leaders — who everyday people want in Washington to get results,” James said.
Upton, 64, has been in Congress since 1987 and periodically signaled his interest in higher office, only to stand down.
But with the Democrats threatening to sweep in a potential midterm backlash against Trump, running for Senate seemed like his preferred option, especially if the alternative was defending his swing district, and if he won, returning to the House with no chairmanship, having lost his Energy and Commerce Committee gavel last year to term limits.
Upton’s political team was pleased with how the race was shaping up. According to its polling, Stabenow was vulnerable and Republican primary voters wanted to nominate a Senate candidate that would work hard and get things done. The congressman was very viable, a source close to Upton said.
“Our position in public and private polls was strong,” this source said. Upton would later add in a statement announcing he would run for re-election to the House instead: “There was a path” to victory, regarding a Senate run.
Still, Upton had a problem, the first inkling of which arose when music star Kid Rock, a local success story whose real name is Robert Ritchie, floated his name as a possible 2018 Senate candidate. Up against this brash, famous outsider, Upton didn’t stand a chance in the primary. Yet even after Ritchie withdrew from contention, Upton’s 30 years of service in Washington remained a glaring liability.
Like the 2016 presidential primary that nominated Trump, Michigan’s GOP Senate primary has proven that outsider fever continues to run high among the GOP base, diminishing the value of well-heeled contributors and party insiders in this and other races. Upton generally had a lock on this crowd; in the past this advantage would have made him a shoo-in for the nomination.
In the current environment, it’s a vulnerability, and it showed up in Upton’s private polling, according to sources that are familiar with the data, in addition to the public polling. Last week, a survey for MIRS News showed Upton well ahead of Young, but trailing James by 5 percentage points.
“Upton had challenges,” said a Republican operative monitoring the race. “He would have been the Jeb Bush of the primary.”
