USA Today has an interesting tally of insurgent casualties today, reporting that Coalition forces have killed some 19,000 insurgents since over the last four years.
Meanwhile, Coalition casualties are remarkably low for the month of September, with 60* U.S. troops KIA so far this month. With a little luck, this will be the lowest count in more than a year. But one also needs to figure in the increase in force levels. As Petraeus advisor David Kilcullen pointed out in a post at Small Wars Journal in June,
So, relative to the same time last year, if casualty figures had risen in proportion to troop levels, we’d be at 150 KIA a month. Instead, we’re hovering around 60*. That’s 60 percent more soldiers, with 30 percent fewer killed. And as far as Iraqi units, while they are increasing in number and visibility, their casualties dropped dramatically over the last two months–this will be the first time ever that Iraqi Security Forces will see two consecutive months with less than 100 KIA (barring a major incident over the weekend). Also, the number of civilians killed has dropped to just over 600, the first time that numbers been below 1,000 in over a year, and less than a quarter of what it was in March (2,762). (All numbers from iCasualties.org) The worst number ever for Iraqi civilian deaths was September of last year–so if this can’t be explained as cyclical. And as far as Coalition deaths, I don’t see any pattern there either that would indicate September typically offers a lull in the fighting. It’s hard to explain this any other way: the surge is working, fewer Iraqis are dying, fewer Americans are dying, and fewer bad guys seem to be dying, too. That’s progress. *Correction: My math was fuzzy here, my apologies. 39 U.S. troops have been killed in action, not the 60 I’d quoted above. Another 23 died in theater from “non-hostile” causes. U.S. deaths from hostile fire have been on the decline at a rate of roughly 20 percent a month since May.
Pentagon numbers on insurgent deaths, from USA Today.
