Why suspending F-35 deliveries to Turkey is more bark than bite

President Trump and Congress sent a message to Turkey this week by suspending deliveries of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets to the NATO ally, but the legislation contained in a newly passed annual defense bill is unlikely to have any real impact on the program.

The suspension could last just three months and Turkey is not expected to receive its next F-35 until 2019, according to Joe DellaVedova, spokesman for the Pentagon’s F-35 Joint Program Office, and two other sources close to the program.

The National Defense Authorization Act signed by Trump at Fort Drum, N.Y., on Monday requires Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to submit a comprehensive report on Turkey relations and weapons sales to Congress within 90 days. It comes as the Trump administration issues new sanctions and tariffs, and the U.S.-Turkey relationship is increasingly strained over Ankara’s detention of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson.

Once the report is submitted to lawmakers, the deliveries of the high-tech Lockheed Martin fighters to Turkey is expected to resume, according to the House and Senate armed services committees, which drafted the NDAA provision. Turkey plans to eventually buy 100 fighters that will likely be delivered over the coming decade.

However, the Pentagon faces no penalties if it breaks the 90-day deadline set by Congress.

“The F-35 JPO, in conjunction with all F-35 partners, will continue to execute current program plans and will abide by any future policy directions as required,” said DellaVedova, whose office is coordinating with the Pentagon on the report to Congress.

Turkey took ceremonial delivery of two F-35 fighters in June. The aircraft were sent to Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, were the U.S. is teaching Turkish pilots and crews to maintain and fly the advanced fighters as part of a routine partner nation training program that can last one to two years.

The NDAA suspension will not disrupt that training and those F-35s will eventually be sent to Turkey once it is completed.

“The training of Turkish F-35 personnel at Luke Air Force Base will continue until the NDAA-required secretary of defense F-35 report has been submitted to Congress for their decision on the way forward,” Lt. Col. Mike Andrews said.

Lockheed Martin said it stands ready to assist the Pentagon on the report to Congress but directed further questions to the military.

“Legislation related to the relationship between the United States and Turkey is a government-to-government matter and the Department of Defense is best placed to answer questions,” Lockheed spokesman Mike Friedman said. “We’ll provide information if requested to the Pentagon as they complete their report and will comply with any resulting official U.S. government guidance.”

Congress intended the suspension to be a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over Brunson, who was swept up in purges after an attempted military coup in 2016, as well as Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian rule.

“The United States expects Turkey to uphold its obligations as a NATO ally, including respecting the due process rights of American citizens who reside in or travel to Turkey, and this provision is the first step towards working with the Pentagon to ensuring our national defense priorities are protected while laying the groundwork for additional congressional action if necessary,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a sponsor of the legislation and a Senate Armed Services Committee member, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.

Trump tweeted on Friday that he authorized doubling Turkey tariffs on steel and aluminum over the pastor’s continued detention.

[More: White House: Turkey’s tariff retaliation ‘regrettable’]

The administration and lawmakers are also deeply concerned about Erdogan’s intent to buy an S-400 missile defense system from Russia while also purchasing the F-35. The missile system would not be compatible with other NATO systems and the purchase could could enhance the NATO ally’s relationship with Moscow.

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