Is the area?s housing market cooling?

Published July 14, 2006 4:00am ET



While recent numbers indicate what some say is an end to the area?s strong real estate market, many in the industry are saying it?s merely back to reality.

“The frenzy has departed,” said David McIlvaine, a board member with the Greater Baltimore Board of Realtors and an associate broker with Keller Williams of Ellicott City. “Basically we see it cooling and the cooling is back to a more traditional market. It?s still strong but the frenzy is just not there anymore.”

According to data compiled by Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., the total number of homes sold in the Baltimore area, which includes Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford and Howard counties, dropped from 5,048 in June 2005 to 3,909 in June 2006, marking a 22.56 percent decline.

Average days on the market increased from 38 days in June 2005 to 51 days last month, though average sale prices rose by 3.41 percent to $319,633.

“The reality is that although those numbers on the surface may appear alarming, they?re being compared to June 2005, which was the start of the end of three years of back-to-back record sales,” said Alan Ingraham, president of the Maryland Association of Realtors. “The other factor to keep in mind is that although activity has slowed, values continue to hold their own. What would give me concern about the marketplace is if there was a slowdown in activity along with diminishment in values.”

Tracy Gosson, executive director of the Live Baltimore Home Center, agreed, saying that the recent numbers are no reason for concern.

“There is a reality adjustment to the marketplace and it?s nothing to be alarmed about,” Gosson said. “You?re not going to get 20 offers and $50,000 over the asking price, though. But, overall [the market] is still very healthy and there is no concern of a depression on the horizon. This is not 1998.”

Gosson added that the MRIS numbers only provide a one-month snapshot ofthe market and that a better comparison is to look at the numbers during a six- to 12-month time period.

In Baltimore City, which Gosson said remains “a hot destination” to buy real estate, the total number of homes sold dipped by 25.49 percent from 1,365 units sold in June 2005 to 1,017 in June 2006.

Average days on the market for June rose by 5.56 percent from 54 days in 2005 to 57 days in 2006. However, average home prices again increased by almost 4 percent to $180,176.

“It?s what you would call a market adjustment. People need to ground their decisions a little more in reality,” Gosson said. “You?re still going to be able to ask a reasonable selling price, it?s just not going to be [a] ridiculous” amount.

Average prices and number of homes sold in June 2005 compared with June 2006

Anne Arundel County

» Total units sold

2006: 750

2005: 1,093

» Average price

2006: $423,896

2005: $418,458

Baltimore City

» Total units sold

2006: 1,017

2005: 1,365

» Average price

2006: $180,176

2005: $173,293

Baltimore County

» Total units sold

2006: 1,097

2005: 1,320

» Average price

2006: $315,802

2005: $301,036

Carroll County

» Total units sold

2006: 246

2005: 279

» Average price

2006: $389,682

2005: $344,489

Harford County

» Total units sold

2006: 374

2005:445

» Average price

2006: $283,622

2005: $283,513

Howard County

» Total units sold

2006: 425

2005: 546

» Average price

2006: $398,000

2005: $388,500

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc.

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