The Charleston debate may have been more consequential than it looked at first glance. For starters, neither Jeb Bush nor John Kasich nor Ben Carson registered. (Except for Bush’s bizarre decision to make his most impassioned argument of the campaign in service of the rights of Muslim citizens from foreign countries. This was political malpractice.) The night further underscored the extent to which the race has really drilled down to four plausible candidates, who are competing in two very different races.
In the Christie vs. Rubio war, you saw a gotcha fight over Christie’s past transgressions on conservative policy orthodoxy. Some of the charges Rubio made against Christie were stretches (like Christie’s support of Common Core, which he clearly and decisively changed policy on). Others were pretty clean hits—like his pointing to Christie’s support of the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor, Planned Parenthood, and desire to restrict gun rights. This is the normal order of battle in a Republican primary and the fight might determine which of these candidates advances out of New Hampshire.
Chris Christie missed an opportunity to close on Rubio. Rubio’s short-term strategy is simple: Beat Christie, Bush, and Kasich in New Hampshire and then consolidate their supporters as they become non-viable in the aftermath. Christie has to beat Rubio in New Hampshire—full stop—in order to continue. He’s living in New Hampshire and playing very well there to his strengths as retail politician. He’s been creeping up on him in the polls. If Christie had come out tonight and bloodied Rubio, he could have put the Florida senator in a very precarious spot.
Instead, Rubio went on the offensive with Christie; Christie’s answers were less than compelling; and Rubio never looked back. This wasn’t Christie’s last chance—there are still two debates before New Hampshire votes. But there’s not a ton of time, either.
On the other side, you had Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, clashing over whether or not Cruz is eligible to be president. In this contest, Trump’s past violations of conservative orthodoxy—gun rights, eminent domain—matter so little that no one even bothers bringing them up. Instead, Trump was able to force a confrontation over a (very questionable) interpretation of Constitutional eligibility. The entire affair underscores the extent to which Trump is operating under a different set of physical laws.
So who won that fight? It’s impossible to tell. Cruz was, to my mind, very effective in his response. (Cruz played was an effective alpha all night.) But the universe of people whose reaction matters in this case is very small—primarily Cruz supporting and leaning voters in Iowa. Right now, Iowa is, as Dan Rather would have said, tighter than a tick. If just 5 percent of Cruz supporters in Iowa were moved off the line by it, that could be enough to deliver Iowa for Trump.
A final note on Trump: Tonight’s debate showcased a new side of Trump. We’ll call it Low-Energy Trump, but the truth is, he was calm and (relatively) serious. He looked like an entrenched front-runner with a secured base who is pivoting to talk to undecided voters. His best moment of the night—maybe in any debate so far—was actually a counterpunch, when he went sentimental and low-key responding to Cruz’s not-at-all clumsy “New York values” jab. This was a pitch Trump hasn’t shown before. And it suggests that he’s still improving as a candidate.
