AMES, Iowa – Two sparring matches will unfold within the larger Republican debate here Thursday, as two pairs of antagonists look to assume front-runner status with their wing of the GOP electorate.
One duel will occur between Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The other combatants will be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman.
Bachmann and Pawlenty, both from Minnesota, are fighting for a similar set of socially conservative voters, and one should emerge from the debate as that voting blocs’ favorite.
“They both want to be the favorite son or daughter of Iowa,” said Brian Darling, a political analyst with the Heritage Foundation.
Bachmann, the perceived front-runner in Iowa, must place first or second in the straw poll to maintain her momentum. Pawlenty must perform well if he wants to break out of Bachmann’s shadow and erase memories of a weak performance in the last debate in New Hampshire.
Huntsman, meanwhile, has begun targeting Romney from the campaign trail, and it remains to be seen whether Romney will strike back.
“You can expect them to go after one another because they are competing for the same niche” of moderate Republicans, said Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies at the the Brookings Institution. Candidates have already made an initial impression on voters and must now aggressively distinguish themselves from a crowded field while providing specifics on how they would lead the country, political analysts say.
Though it is usually a risky strategy to launch personal attacks early in the campaign, analysts are expecting some of the participants to attempt to provoke opponents into a misstep and grab headlines for themselves.
“If they come out swinging, they will be the new flavor of the week, and that will give them a huge bump nationally and going into the straw poll,” said Darling. “It has to happen either at this debate or very soon after, because they are running out of time.”
The first-in-the-nation caucuses in Iowa are scheduled for early February, and the Ames straw poll is being held on Saturday.
West said candidates may also take some “gentle jabs” at Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is expected to enter the race soon.
“He did choose to skip [the Iowa] debate, and I can see some of the candidates pointing that out as a means of criticizing him,” West said.
