As his confirmation process to head troops in Afghanistan begins Tuesday, Gen. David Petraeus is expected to face blunt questions from conservatives uneasy about the course of the war and from liberals who feel betrayed by the administration’s expansion of the conflict.
As difficult as it will be for the commander, famously dismissed by the liberal group MoveOn.org as “General Betrayus,” to thread the ideological minefields at the congressional hearing, the real heavy lifting will begin when Petraeus takes over in Kabul.
Petraeus has much in his favor — including the high regard of most Americans after his successes in Iraq and what is likely to be unprecedented backing from a desperate Obama administration that needs him to demonstrate progress in a matter of months. Also, from his present perch as head of Central Command, which oversees Afghanistan, Iraq and the region, the general has been actively involved in overseeing the war. On a personal level, he has demonstrated a deep interest in Afghanistan.
But he will face many of the same obstacles that haunted Gen. Stanley McChrystal before his unceremonious self-destruction brought about by impolitic comments to a reporter. Those obstacles include a tenacious Taliban that has so far proved impervious to the strategy of counterinsurgency Petraeus backs.
More insidious is the apparent rift between military and civilian authorities in Afghanistan described by McChrystal and his aides.
“[Current Ambassador Karl] Eikenberry will be opposed to Petraeus’ strategy because it will likely be the same as McChrystal’s strategy,” said Arturo Munoz, an expert in Afghanistan affairs at the RAND think tank in Washington, D.C. “Because Petraeus is a better politician than McChrystal, he will may be able to finesse the differences and keep them out of public view. But the fundamental differences in strategic thinking cannot be mended.”
Democrats may be asking some of the toughest questions of Petraeus, including whether he intends to hold to the Obama administration’s timetable of beginning withdrawal from Afghanistan in July 2011. It has been an open secret among top military commanders that the deadline was impractical and was helping the Taliban in its tactics against NATO, sources said.
But the looming draw-down date of July 2011 could become a trap for Petraeus and the Obama administration, one that the general would be wise to skirt Tuesday, experts said.
An editorial Monday by Fouad Ajami in The Wall Street Journal said, “In the phase to come, the deadline for the start of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will stalk this military campaign.” The history of Vietnam, where troop drawdowns became an incessant mantra for the Nixon administration, “offers a cautionary precedent.”
Petraeus will never be in a better position to deflect hard questions that he is right now. As Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., said on Fox News Sunday, “I think we put all of our eggs in the Petraeus basket.” As for any split with Eikenberry or special envoy to Afghanistan Richard Holbrooke, “Petraeus should make the calls,” Sen. Feinstein said. “If he can’t work with the ambassador, the ambassador should change. If he can’t work with Holbrooke, that should change.”
Petraeus is aware of the obstacles before him and understands the implications of the war, Munoz said.
“The failure was not building trust with the Afghan people,” said Sher, a former Mujahideen fighter against the Soviet Union who now advises U.S. military officials in Afghanistan. “The Afghan people need to believe that they will not be abandoned, and right now that message has not been delivered at all.”
Several years ago, Gen. Petraeus recommended the book “Three Cups of Tea” by Greg Mortenson to this reporter, saying it had helped his understanding of tribal politics in the region.
The best-selling book recounts one man’s campaign to build schools in a remote, dangerous section of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border beginning in the years before September 11. The task is complicated by bewildering tribal affinities and the resistance of the Taliban to schools that allowed girls to study. The author’s Central Asia Institute has built at least 55 schools in the region.
“It’s one of the best books I’ve read,” Petraeus said. “I really believe there’s hope for Afghanistan and its people.”
Now it is up to him to convince dubious members of Congress — and eventually the American people — to share that belief.
