As the country inches closer toward Election Day, voters are homing in on specific issues that may decide the fate of Congress and several state governments in November.
The Washington Examiner is tracking which issues are on the top of voters’ minds as they prepare to head to the polls, particularly in key battleground states that could bring a shift in power to the federal government. Specifically, we’re tracking how voters are researching our top five issues, including abortion, crime, education, inflation, and taxes, and how these interests fluctuate as we get closer to Election Day.
MIDTERMS 2022: TRACKING THE ISSUES THAT MATTER TO VOTERS AHEAD OF ELECTION DAY
Below you can track the interest of each of our key issues on a rolling 30-day basis in the battleground state of Arizona. The Washington Examiner will be updating this page as interests and voting concerns change.
Key races we’re watching in the state:
Arizona has several high-profile races on the ballot this year that may have national implications for the power balance of Congress and how presidential elections will be held in the state.
Republicans are eyeing the Senate race between incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) who will face Trump-backed challenger Blake Masters for a seat the GOP is hoping to flip in November. The race, once deemed a toss-up, is likely to lean Democratic, according to some analysts, giving Kelly an advantage heading into the general election.
Further down the ballot, Arizona voters are set to choose a new governor, which could have an impact on how presidential elections are held in the state, especially after claims of widespread voter fraud in 2020 that Trump allies claim are responsible for the former president’s loss. That issue has taken center stage in the Arizona governor’s race as GOP candidate Kari Lake has focused much of her campaign on rejecting the results of the 2020 election.
She is set to face Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs, who currently serves as the Arizona secretary of state and has defended the state’s administration of the 2020 election.
Education
At the top of Arizona voters’ minds as of Oct. 16 is education, according to internet searches recorded and analyzed by Google Trends.
Education emerged as a top concern among voters over the last month, spiking several times throughout the month of October, mirroring nationwide trends that saw the issue receive renewed interest over the last two months — likely coinciding with the beginning of the school year. Other spikes in interest may be due in part to the announcement of President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness program on Aug. 24.
Arizona voters are particularly concerned about increased funding for education as well as reducing financial barriers for students going to college, according to a survey conducted by the Center for the Future of Arizona.
Taxes
Taxes emerged as one of the top issues for Arizona voters at the end of September, alternating with crime as the No. 2 issue before rising in interest by mid-October and cementing itself in second place.
Google searches related to taxes began to rise near the end of September, likely due to the announcement from Gov. Doug Ducey that the Arizona Department of Revenue would begin implementing the next phase of its flat tax in 2023, marking the lowest flat tax in the nation.
Taxes have also been in the spotlight in Arizona after the state Supreme Court ruled in August that tax cuts enacted by state lawmakers cannot be repealed by voters through a ballot referendum. Education advocates sought to block a decision from the state legislature that approved tax cuts mainly benefiting wealthy taxpayers in the state.
Crime
Crime emerged as a top voter issue near the end of September and beginning of October, coming in at No. 3 as of Oct. 16. The issue has long been a focal point in the midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans making clear distinctions about how they’d address rising crime rates.
Crime hasn’t been central to the midterm elections dialogue in Arizona, but it has become a focal point for several campaigns nationwide. It’s not clear how it will play out, but Republican candidates may have an advantage in the Grand Canyon State because they are typically considered to be better at handling crime, according to an April Washington Post/ABC News poll.
That sentiment has shifted in previous years. Voters used to consider both parties equal on the matter.
Inflation
Inflation remained as one of Arizona voters’ least important priorities, remaining near the bottom of the list over the last month aside from a spike in interest on Oct. 13.
The spike in interest on Oct. 13 is likely due to the latest report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that was released on that day, the final report before Election Day. Inflation clocked in at 8.2% for the 12 months ending in September, higher than expected and defying the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes.
Stocks immediately took a hit after the report was released. Futures of the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down some 500 points just minutes after the report’s release. The S&P 500 was off by about 2%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite plunged nearly 3%.
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Republicans have long focused on inflation as a key voter concern in the midterm election cycle, pointing to soaring inflation rates under Biden. However, inflation has become less of a concern after the passage of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, offering Democrats relief and posing challenges to Republicans as they formulate new strategies.
Abortion
Abortion was previously one of the lowest-researched topics among Arizona voters throughout September, according to Google Trends data. However, it saw a major spike in interest on Sept. 24, the day the state’s new abortion law took effect, which banned the procedure after 15 weeks of gestation. Under state law, it is legal for Arizona residents to obtain an abortion in another state. The issue then fell back to the bottom of the list as of Oct. 16.
Abortion emerged as a top issue among voters nationwide over the summer after the Supreme Court announced its decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, ending nationwide access to abortions and instead returning the decision of its legality to the states. The issue has particularly taken center stage in the attorney general’s race because the position will largely be responsible for interpreting the state’s new abortion law.
