The latest Afghanistan quarterly report to Congress has revealed a 50% spike in violence, higher enemy-initiated attacks, and gridlock in internal peace talks, casting doubt on a U.S. promise of a full withdrawal of troops by April 2021.
The Department of Defense plans to draw down to 4,000-5,000 troops by the end of the month. A full withdrawal by April 2021— or sooner, as President Trump has called for — is not in America’s best interest, according to the Heritage Foundation.
If past time in office is any indication, a Biden administration may also refuse to abide by the withdrawal deadline agreed with the Taliban Feb. 29 in Doha.
“If we use the [Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction] report as the barometer on whether or not U.S. troops should remain, then we probably would have left years ago,” said Heritage security expert Luke Coffey, who deployed to Afghanistan with the U.S. Army in 2005.
“It’s grim reading,” he added.
The Saturday report commended historic peace talks between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban that began Sept. 11 but noted they deadlocked Oct. 27.
The peace deal struck between the United States and the Taliban called for an end to Taliban attacks against U.S. and coalition forces and paved the way for intra-Afghan talks.
The agreement also called for a reduction in violence, but the opposite has occurred.
The SIGAR report cited United States Forces-Afghanistan commander Gen. Austin Scott Miller, who said the Taliban violence around the country “is not consistent with the U.S.-Taliban agreement and undermines the ongoing Afghan peace talks.”
While the report classified an answer to a question as to whether U.S. forces had been attacked, October was a bloody month for the Afghan security forces.
Afghans suffered dozens of combat deaths at the hands of the Taliban, and the U.S. was required to conduct multiple support operations to protect the Afghan military.
About three-quarters of the remaining U.S. forces in Afghanistan are training the Afghan military, while a quarter is involved in high-end counterterrorism operations, said Coffey.
If the U.S. withdraws, the Taliban would be the ultimate guarantor of a terrorist-free Afghanistan.
No evidence of break with al Qaeda
The think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies warned in an October report that the Taliban aim to reconstitute their emirate and has made no clear rejection of al Qaeda.
“Today, the Taliban’s emirate is on the verge of resurrection in at least parts of the country,” wrote senior fellow Thomas Joscelyn. “There is still no indication that the Taliban is willing to abandon its authoritarian aims and give up its quest to rebuild its emirate.”
FDD’s Long War Journal indicates that the Taliban currently control some 18% of Afghanistan’s provinces.
Still, Joscelyn notes, the Taliban have not made a clear break with al Qaeda.
“It’s been more than seven months since that agreement was signed and there is no indication that the Taliban has broken with al-Qaeda, or intends to do so,” he wrote. “There is no good reason for anyone to take the group at its word.”
For that reason, Coffey argues the U.S. must retain a troop presence to guard against a terrorist safe haven returning to Afghanistan.
“The U.S. should continue with its military training relationship with Afghanistan well into the future,” he said.
Coffey noted that worldwide where terrorists exist, from the Sahel region of Africa to Southeast Asia, U.S. troops conduct training and counterterrorism side by side, so why should Afghanistan be any different?
“Continuing with the training and advising mission in parallel to a counterterrorism mission, I think, is the completely acceptable, responsible, and realistic approach to our presence in Afghanistan,” he said.
Trump has made clear his desire for American soldiers to come home from all “endless wars.” He recently tweeted hopefully that soldiers now in Afghanistan could be home by Christmas.
Coffey thinks the political groundwork laid by the Trump administration will remain in place under a potential Biden administration. But the question of troops may be handled differently.
As part of the Obama administration a decade ago, Joe Biden argued unsuccessfully to keep a small residual force in Afghanistan with a narrow focus, Coffey said.
“Biden didn’t get his way,” he explained. “He wanted a bigger drawdown and focus on counterterrorism. That was 10 years ago. Now, we’ll see how his views [have changed]. The situation in Afghanistan has drastically changed since 2010.”
Coffey said the situation on the ground will determine the course, but Afghanistan will not be a priority for a future president.
“I don’t know if Afghanistan is actually going to rank very high up in terms of seeing big changes,” he said. “The ball is in the court of the Afghans.”
