President Trump is expected next week to announce that the Iran nuclear deal does not meet the legal threshold for the United States to remain with the pact, and then leave it to Congress to decide what next steps to take, according to a new report.
Trump is close to concluding that the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is not “vital to the national security interests of the United States” as required by federal law. That could touch off a high-stakes diplomatic effort to convince Iran to stop an array of aggressive behavior or face renewed economic sanctions from the United States.
But according to the Washington Post, Trump won’t recommend the imposition of new sanctions, and will leave it up to Congress how to respond.
As it stands, the momentum appears to be with Iran hawks who want to increase pressure on the regime as well as European allies who prefer to stick with the current deal.
“Our European allies would rather stick their heads in the sand and make billions of dollars selling equipment — much of it dual-use [civilian and military] — to Iran than deal with the manifest flaws of the JCPOA,” Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., said in a recent Washington Examiner interview.
British, French, and German diplomats argue that the agreement is succeeding in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, at least for now. They worry that a decision not to certify the agreement, much less an American withdrawal, could lead the regime to race for nuclear weapons capabilities.
“Of course, it’s good business,” German Ambassador Peter Wittig said last week. “We want this Iran to gradually move to our values, to our worldview. Trade is an instrument and interaction with a society is an instrument and we think it’s a good thing.”
Trump has denounced the deal as an “embarrassment” to the United States, even as Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and other Cabinet officials have urged him to remain with the agreement. But the administration may be bowing to the president’s policy preferences. “Trump’s senior national security advisers agreed within the past several weeks to recommend that Trump ‘decertify’ the agreement at the Oct. 15 deadline,” according to the Post report.
Democratic proponents of the deal maintain that such a move would weaken the administration’s ability to counter Iran by opening a fissure between the western allies. “The maximum point of leverage to address Iran’s nefarious activities is now, before his expected terrible decision,” a senior Senate Democratic aide told reporters in an emailed statement. “Not after, when he undermines America’s credibility to uphold its commitments with our allies and partners.”
If Trump rejects that course, the stage would be set for the president to impose economic sanctions unilaterally or for Congress to vote on the issue. European officials have argued they won’t re-impose sanctions, but Iran hawks believe that is wrong.
“Everyone says the international community won’t do that,” Sen. Dan Sullivan, an Alaska Republican who worked on sanctions issues during a previous stint at the State Department. “We went to countries, many of whom were our allies, and said ‘you need to get on board or there might be consequences for you.'”
Still, it will be a difficult process under any circumstances. “It requires a lot of artful diplomacy, as well as effective economic and military hard-power coercion,” a Middle East expert who has advised the administration told the Washington Examiner said on condition of anonymity. “I don’t think it’s fully fleshed out to the point that the U.S. principals or the European allies feel comfortable that we’re not going to create a worse mess by doing this.”
