The entire Middle East is anxiously awaiting whether President Donald Trump will lean into negotiating with Iran or authorize a new military operation, one that could target the senior regime leaders.
Trump told Axios earlier this week that the situation with Iran is “in flux” after he threatened to intervene militarily over Tehran’s deadly crackdown on protests throughout the country earlier this month, which is believed to have killed thousands.
The president has been briefed on U.S. intelligence showing the regime’s hold on power in Tehran is weakening despite the dispersal of the protests, according to the New York Times, and sent an aircraft carrier to the region. Still, a U.S. official told reporters on Monday that if Iran wants to negotiate a deal with the administration, “We are open for business.”
The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was dispatched to the region to give Trump more military options, arriving this week. U.S. Air Force Central announced on Monday it would be carrying out a multiday training exercise to “demonstrate the ability to deploy, disperse, and sustain combat airpower across the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility,” according to a statement.
Now, U.S. officials and regional leaders are preparing for a possible U.S. military operation.
The commander of CENTCOM, Adm. Brad Cooper, visited Israel last weekend, where he met with the country’s Chief of the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The Israel Defense Forces said the meeting “serves as another expression of the relationship between the commanders and constitutes an additional step in enhancing the close strategic relationship between the IDF and U.S. military.”
Meanwhile, Iranian military leaders have issued warnings about retaliating against U.S. forces and assets in the region if they are attacked, and the country’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has begun implementing emergency measures to ensure the continuity of services in case of another American attack, according to the Financial Times.
The United Arab Emirates, a U.S. ally, put out a statement barring the use of its airspace for any attack targeting Iran, a message timed with the arrival of the USS Lincoln to the region.
Two of Iran’s proxy forces in the region — the Yemen-based Houthis and Iraq-based Kataib Hezbollah paramilitary group — have threatened to launch new attacks on U.S. interests in the region if the United States were to carry out an attack on Iran.
Both forces launched attacks in recent years against U.S. interests since Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel ignited conflicts across the region. The Houthis, utilizing the Yemeni geography, began targeting commercial vessels transiting the waterways off the coast, which forced shipping companies to avoid the area in exchange for longer but safer and more expensive routes. The Iraqi militia, for its part, began carrying out strikes against U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. The one strike it carried out in Jordan, targeting a small U.S. base called Tower 22, killed three U.S. troops.
While they’ve signaled a willingness to restart attacking U.S. interests in the region, neither group got involved in last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran. Other Iranian proxy forces include Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both of which have been decimated by Israeli forces in the more than two years since the Oct. 7 attack.
“During the past two months, several parties have asked me a clear and frank question: If Israel and America go to war against Iran, will Hezbollah intervene or not?” Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Kassem said in a video address to supporters gathered for a rally in support of Iran.
Iran spent decades building up these proxy forces to attack its targets, primarily Israel and the U.S., to avoid being directly tied to any such actions and face direct retaliation.
ABRAHAM LINCOLN CARRIER STRIKE GROUP NOW IN MIDDLE EAST AHEAD OF POSSIBLE IRAN ATTACK
Trump gave Iran 60 days to come to a new nuclear agreement with the U.S. last spring, and at the conclusion of that time period without a deal, he approved the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities during the Israel-Iran 12-day war.
Earlier this month, Steve Witkoff, the president’s envoy to the Middle East, said the four main issues that needed to be a part of any agreement would be a ban on uranium enrichment, the removal of already-enriched uranium, a limit on Iran’s long-range missile stockpiles, and reduced support for its proxies.
