Afghanistan Uncertainties

Ben Watson of DefenseOne reports that:

The watchdog agency for the $104 billion that the U.S. has pledged for the reconstruction effort in Afghanistan says rampant corruption could derail rebuilding the nation after 13 years of war.

Yesterday, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, John Sopko, outlined what he called “seven ‘potent threats’ as U.S. and NATO forces draw down.”

And, he added:

“As we all know, the Afghan economy is already under strain and will likely weaken further as more foreign troops and aid workers leave the country.” 

The military outlook is no more reassuring as, As Lynne O’Donnell of the AP writes:

American and NATO troops closed their operational command in Afghanistan on Monday, lowering flags in a ceremony to mark the formal end of their combat mission in a country still mired in war 13 years after the U.S.-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime for harboring those responsible for 9/11.
The closing of the command, which oversaw the day-to-day operations of coalition combat forces, is one of the final steps in a transition to a support and training role that begins Jan. 1. But with President Barack Obama’s recent move authorizing U.S. forces in Afghanistan to carry out military operations against Taliban and al-Qaida targets, America’s longest war will in fact continue for at least another two years.

Or, according to the enemy, maybe longer.  Much longer.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told The Associated Press that the group would continue to fight “until all foreign troops have left Afghanistan.”
“The Americans want to extend their mission in Afghanistan, the motive being to keep the war going for as long as possible,” Mujahid said. “And for as long as they do, the Taliban will continue their fight against the foreign and (Afghan) government forces.”

The commander of U.S. forces, meanwhile, expressed a kind of melancholy ambivalence:

“I don’t know if I’m pessimistic or optimistic,” said Lt. Gen. Joseph Anderson, the departing commander, considering the United States military’s reduced role next year. “The fact that we are in less places, the fact that there are less of us as a coalition, is obviously concerning.”

As Azam Ahmed of the New York Times reports, the general gives a:

… nuanced take on the final year of America’s longest war. The record casualties of Afghan forces are not sustainable, and neither are their astounding desertion rates, he said. Political meddling, not intelligence, drives Afghan military missions. The police and the army do not work together.

Other than that …

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