Tuesday’s primaries across three states revealed unexpected warning signs for incumbents heading into the 2026 cycle, with several sitting lawmakers struggling or falling outright even as reelection rates historically remain among the highest in American politics.

The most dramatic upset came in Texas, where Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) lost his primary by double digits to state Rep. Steve Toth. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) also failed to clear the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, forcing the longtime incumbent into another round of voting.

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