EXCLUSIVE — A new poll commissioned by the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a steady lead over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican Senate runoff, as the data suggest the incumbent senator’s support remains softer and more vulnerable.
The survey, conducted by the nonpartisan firm GQR, found Paxton ahead 47% to 42% among likely GOP runoff voters. But the gap is not just about the top line. Paxton’s support appears firmer, with 38% of voters describing themselves as strong supporters, compared to 30% for Cornyn.
The electorate itself skews heavily to the Right. Eighty-four percent of respondents identify as MAGA supporters, 69% call themselves strong Republicans, and nearly all, 94%, say they are certain to vote in the late May runoff.
There are also signs that enthusiasm could play a decisive role. Eighty-five percent of Paxton’s backers rated themselves a 10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale, compared to 70% of Cornyn’s supporters, pointing to a possible turnout advantage for the attorney general.
Cornyn, a two-decade incumbent, is also facing a softer personal standing with these voters. While Paxton posts a net positive favorability rating at 56% favorable to 43% unfavorable, Cornyn is slightly underwater, with 47% viewing him favorably and 51% unfavorably.
The poll suggests the race may be difficult to shake up. Even after voters were presented with both positive and negative information about each candidate, the overall margin barely budged.
There is one scenario that offers Cornyn a possible opening: When voters hear only negative information about Paxton, Cornyn moves into the lead, 48% to 41%, with 11% undecided. But that advantage does not hold once voters are also presented with criticisms of Cornyn, which then shifts the race back in Paxton’s favor, 47% to 41%.
Those vulnerabilities are not abstract. The survey found GOP voters were particularly responsive to attacks on Cornyn’s past positions on gun control, immigration, and “amnesty,” as well as his votes for some of former President Joe Biden nominees.
A possible endorsement from President Donald Trump also appears unlikely to dramatically reshape the race. In split-sample testing, Paxton maintained his lead whether Trump backed Cornyn or stayed neutral.
“John Cornyn is an incumbent senator who is already losing, in an electorate structurally hostile to him, with a negative personal image he cannot repair,” said Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC. “The numbers don’t show a candidate who is struggling. They show a candidate who is losing.”
Cornyn’s campaign declined to comment. National Republicans, however, have pushed back on Paxton’s candidacy.
“John Cornyn is the only candidate in this race with a proven record of showing up to champion President Trump’s agenda in the Senate and is the best candidate to beat radical James Talarico,” said Joanna Rodriguez, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The poll surveyed 600 likely Republican runoff voters from March 19 to March 23 using a mix of live phone interviews and text-to-web responses. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The findings mirror what played out over the weekend at the Conservative Political Action Conference, where activists overwhelmingly backed Paxton in a straw poll, giving him 67% support compared to 21% for Cornyn.
PAXTON DOMINATES CPAC AS GOP FRETS OVER TEXAS SENATE RUNOFF
The March 3 primary failed to produce a majority winner, sending the race to a late May runoff. Cornyn enters the next phase with clear institutional advantages, including stronger fundraising and support from establishment Republicans. Paxton, by contrast, has leaned into grassroots energy that now appears to be coalescing behind him.
The winner will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November, setting up a general election that is expected to draw significant national attention. Trump has said he plans to weigh in on the race but has yet to do so.
