Paxton leads Cornyn in Texas runoff as poll shows incumbent’s support lagging

Published March 31, 2026 7:00am ET



EXCLUSIVE A new poll commissioned by the Democrat-aligned Senate Majority PAC shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a steady lead over Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican Senate runoff, as the data suggest the incumbent senator’s support remains softer and more vulnerable.

The survey, conducted by the nonpartisan firm GQR, found Paxton ahead 47%-42% among likely GOP runoff voters. But the gap is not just about the top line. Paxton’s support appears firmer, with 38% of voters describing themselves as strong supporters, compared to 30% for Cornyn.

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