Does Likeability Matter?

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“Romney’s High Unfavorable Rating Hampers Message on Economy” ran the headline at Bloomberg Businessweek. “Half of Americans hold an unfavorable view of Romney—a September high for a presidential challenger in the last three decades,” reports Julie Hirschfeld-Davis. “Forty-nine percent of likely voters consider the former Massachusetts governor out of touch, compared with 40 percent who say that of Obama, in the latest Bloomberg National Poll conducted Sept. 21-24.” This is obviously not good news for the Romney camp, and it’s safe to assume the related issue of personal likeability is not a Romney strength either. But questions of likeability should be kept in perspective.

Back in June, Hoover Institution senior fellow and political science professor Morris Fiorina publicized the work of the American National Election Studies which, among other things, has gauged voters’ views on a candidate’s experience and likeability since 1952. “Other things being equal, it is no doubt better for a candidate to be liked than disliked,” wrote Fiorina in the June 7 edition of the New York Times. “[B]ut when other things are not equal, historical data suggest that a candidate’s likeability is a relatively minor factor in deciding modern presidential elections.”

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