Blistering inflation in March, driven by disruptions for the Iran war, is a massive blow to Republicans, who are working to keep control of Congress while grappling with historically low consumer sentiment.
Inflation shot up nine-tenths of a percentage point to 3.3% on the year in March, the government reported Friday, with growing energy prices behind much of the increase. Affordability and inflation are the biggest concerns for voters, and the report is a warning for Republicans up for election in November.
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While Republicans didn’t vote for the war in Iran, they will shoulder some of the blame, given that President Donald Trump leads the party. Democrats will be eager to seize on the higher inflation and use it to encourage voters to back them over the GOP in the midterm elections.
Ryan Young, senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said that while this report might represent a one-time price spike, he doesn’t think that the issue with higher energy prices, and thus higher year-over-year inflation, will go away anytime soon — which would be very detrimental to Republicans heading into the midterms.
“Well, energy prices aren’t going back down to normal,” he told the Washington Examiner.
“I would guess that $4 gas, or near it, is going to be there for at least a year — the infrastructure that’s already been bombed, that can’t be rebuilt overnight and until we have something firmer than a two-week ceasefire, any workers who go in to repair the damage risk being in harm’s way, so that even that could delay rebuilding efforts,” Young said.
Gas prices have spiked with the war, adding to affordability concerns already plaguing consumers. As of Friday, a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. averaged $4.15, according to AAA. That is up nearly 30% from a year ago.
Still, Republicans are taking the report as a one-off and emphasizing items in the CPI bundle that have fallen over the past year. White House spokesman Kush Desai said Trump “has always been clear about short-term disruptions” stemming from the U.S. operation in Iran.
Desai said that the administration has been “diligently working to mitigate” those disruptions.
“Although gas and energy prices are seeing volatility, prices of eggs, beef, prescription drugs, dairy, and other household essentials are falling or remain stable thanks to President Trump’s policies,” he continued. “As the Administration ensures the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, the American economy remains on a solid trajectory thanks to the Administration’s robust supply-side agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance.”
But Peter Loge, director of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, told the Washington Examiner that this is all tricky optics for Republicans.
“Higher gas prices and more wars is a terrible campaign slogan, but it’s one that the Republicans are running on,” Loge said.
And it wasn’t just the inflation report on Friday morning; it was also reported that consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, dropping lower than it did during the depths of the Great Recession.
Consumer sentiment fell to 47.6, down from 53.3 in March, according to a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April. Consumer sentiment is now down 10.7% from a month ago and nearly 9% from a year ago.
It’s a shocking result, considering that inflation is still much lower than it was under former President Joe Biden and the jobs market is stable. Sentiment was higher at time of mass unemployment during the recession and economic upheaval during the pandemic.
But sometimes sentiment and data aren’t exactly linked, according to Loge.
“We’ll see how voters feel in November,” he said. “Macroeconomic reality and voters’ perceptions don’t always match. The Democrats learned this the hard way in the last presidential election, and I think the president and his party may be learning it this time around.”
The consumer sentiment report showed that year-ahead inflation expectations jolted from 3.8% in March to 4.8% in April. That marks the biggest monthly increase since April 2025, around the time when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced. Long-run inflation expectations also increased slightly.
Jason Roe, a veteran Republican political consultant, told the Washington Examiner that the higher inflation is a political liability for the GOP.
“You know, we ran in [20]24 on lowering the cost of living. And right now, because of the war, we’re moving in the wrong direction,” he said.
Roe pointed out that, prior to the conflict, several economic indicators were moving in the right direction for Republicans.
“And then that, coupled with the Trump tax cuts, should have been a strong accelerant for the economy but also for Republicans going into the midterms, and we’ve just lost that advantage for the time being,” Roe said.
Still, he is hopeful that the war might end in the next few weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz will once again allow oil to flow through. But the longer that takes and the closer to the midterms it gets, it will be more challenging for Republicans.
Democrats have already started messaging on the inflation report.
“Donald Trump has tanked the economy for working families,” said DNC rapid response director Kendall Witmer. “Everyday Americans were already struggling to afford rent, groceries, and prescription drugs, and then Trump decided to start a reckless war with Iran and push prices even higher.”
For Republicans, strategy-wise, it’s a bit tricky, too, because of the power Trump holds in Republican politics.
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Loge pointed out that for the primary elections, GOP contenders will have to align with Trump in order to court votes and win those elections.
“But when it comes to the general election, I think Republicans would be wise to find ways to disagree with the president about things the president is doing that are unpopular,” he said. “For example, the war in Iran, gas prices, inflation.”
