The field of Republican senatorial candidates in Virginia is growing like topsy. What does it mean for voters, even though the primary is still a year away? Not much, but for some of the candidates, a growing field means trouble.
One who isn’t in trouble is former Sen. George Allen. Well known, and with a campaign apparatus that never really disappeared after his 2006 loss to Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.), Allen has more chits to call in from local pols, more money in the bank and more experience on the statewide trail than the rest of the field combined. If he didn’t like his chances before (which would have been a surprise), he must really like them now that more folks are entering the race – and fracturing whatever organized opposition he might have faced.
Former tea party leader Jamie Radtke ought to be a bit concerned with the growing number of entrants. She is positioned as the anti-Allen – a fresh face with a hard fiscal message. But as was seen in the 2010 congressional primaries, when tea party-affiliated candidates crowded the 2nd and 5th district ballots, the tea party vote splits easily – to the benefit of the establishment candidate.
But not necessarily all of the new entrants are aiming for the tea party vote. Bishop Earl Jackson (you can hear Jim Hoeft’s interview with him here) and Virginia Beach attorney David McCormick come at the race from different angles – McCormick wants government to run more like a business and emphasizes reform, while Jackson is a strong social conservative (who has addressed his fair share of tea party rallies).
One candidate taking aim directly at the tea party vote (though he only began attending their events a few weeks ago) is Tim Donner. Donner is virtually unknown to the Virginia electorate and to Virginia politics – a distinct drawback. But he could self-finance his campaign, which might make him a known quantity very quickly.
Still undeclared, but highly interested, are state Delegate Bob Marshall and Prince William Supervisor Corey Stewart. Marshall is a hero to many social conservatives in the state but has an on-again, off-again relationship with the tea party groups. He nearly beat Jim Gilmore for the 2008 senatorial nomination, with little money but a lot of shoe leather. He would be a formidable candidate.
Stewart is a known quantity in one of the Commonwealth’s largest and wealthiest counties, Prince William. He’s made immigration an issue and that topic resonates with a large swath of the GOP base. He’s taken a few early swipes at Allen, too, calling him a mediocre senator. Perhaps. But Stewart represents a real wild card for all concerned: he’s a talented politician, from Northern Virginia and unafraid to mix things up. He could also, and easily, siphon tea party voters away from Radtke and the others.
So who benefits from this big field of candidates? As I said earlier: George Allen. At least for now.
And one other person: former Gov. Tim Kaine (D). Despite grumblings and the possibility of some minor opposition, it looks like Kaine will enjoy an easy path to the Democratic nomination, giving him plenty of time to raise money, solidify his base and develop his message while the GOP candidates rip one another to shreds.
